[extropy-chat] Extropy #15 Timeline
Hal Finney
hal at finney.org
Thu Dec 4 02:51:58 UTC 2003
Max More wrote:
> It would be
> interesting to dig out the issue of Extropy that featured a range of
> predicted dates for various events. I recall that Eric Drexler had highly
> optimistic projections, but others looked to 100+ years for many of the
> items listed. I think I was somewhere in the middle. If anyone has the
> issue at hand along with an OCR scanner, it would provide some interesting
> data points.
Coincidentally, someone posted this URL on the FX (idea futures game)
discussion list: http://web.archive.org/web/20030212092807/www.lucifer.com/~sean/N-FX/.
This is a Wayback Machine archive of an article on nanotech timelines,
and it includes a link to the Extropy issue which had that article.
Unfortunately, the archive failed to capture that issue, but the link
does identify it as Extropy #15, which I happen to have, and I can go
ahead and type in the data.
The predictors are Gregory Benford; Steve Bridge; Eric Drexler; FM-2030;
Mark Miller; Max More; and Nick Szabo. These predictions are from 1995.
Explanatory notes include:
Szabo - "The first number is when something might be possible under ideal
engineering, economic, and politilcal conditions. 'now' means we could
have done it already. The second number is the practical prediction,
based primarily on the viewpoint of starting a business..."
Bridge - "My answers are based on when something will 'actually happen'
rather than on when it will be possible."
Miller - "I will use the following variables: N = Now, 1995; S =
Singularity; DAF = Design Ahead Factor.... I predict Singularity as
occuring between N+10 and N+40.... I introduce a Design Ahead Factor
which I define as 10/(S-N). If Singularity occurs in 10 years, DAF is 1.
If Singularity occurs in 40 years, DAF is 1/4."
Here is the table, modulo possible typos. You will need to use a monospace
font to get the columns to line up:
Benford Drexler Miller Szabo
Bridge FM-2030 More
Frozen Organ Transplant Is Routine
2020 2010 never 1990s+ N+20 if (S>N+30) 1999-2008 2020-2030
Two Century Biological Lifespans
2150 2050/2140 never 2010-2020 never 2015-2040 2040/2100
Indefinite Biological Lifespans
2300 2080 1967 S+50 2020-2045 2090/2150
Reanimation for Last Cryonics Suspendee
2100 2060 2006-2021 S+6*DAF 2025-2055 2050/2200
Reanimation for Current Cryonics Suspendees
2200 2090 2006-2021 2020 S+10*DAF 2030-2100 2400/2410
Biotech Cures for Most Heart Disease, Cancer & Aging
2030 2030 never 1990s+ S+10*DAF 2015-2040 2090/2130
Fine-Tuned Mood/Motivation Transformation Drugs
2010 2020 ?-2021 1990s+ N+10 1998-2010 2040/2050
Genius Drugs (>20 pts permanent IQ increase for most people)
2030 2020 ?-2021 S-10 to S+10*DAF 2020-2060 2010/2050
Benford Drexler Miller Szabo
Bridge FM-2030 More
Human Germ-Line Gene Therapy
2040 2007/2025 1990s N+20 2010 now/2010
Human Child Gestated Completely in Artificial Womb
2020 2050 2010-2020 S-5 to S-2*DAF 2015-2035 2100/2120
Cloning of a Human Being
2050 2020 2010 S-5 to S+4*DAF 2010 now/2010
Completely Genetically Composed Children
2060 2050 2015-2020 2060/2100
Extinct Species Reanimation (from preserved DNA)
2100 2025 ?-2021 N+5 to S+1 2010/2020
Benford Drexler Miller Szabo
Bridge FM-2030 More
Cryonics Industry Revenues $1 billion/year
2035 2015 2010-2020 N+30 (if S>N+30) 2015-2020 now/2020
Nanotech Factories
2100 2030/2050 2006-2021 2010-2020 S-3 to S+1 2015-2030 2070/2080
Atomically Detailed Design for Self-Reproducing Drexler-style Assembler
2070 2015 1998-2010 N+7 2000-2015 2100/2100
High-Degree of Freedom Cell Repair Nanomachines
2075 2040/2060 2006/2021 2010 S+2*DAF 2160/2180
Reproducing Nanotech Assemblers
2080 2025 2004-2019 S-3 to S+1 2020-2030 2120/2140
Really Cheap Fusion Power
2100 2040 2010-2020 2010-2020 2200/2210
Nukes as Cheap as Tanks
2105 2015 2040-2050 2100/2150
Nukes as Cheap as Handguns
never never 2200/2250
Benford Drexler Miller Szabo
Bridge FM-2030 More
Most Publications are Electronic
2015 2015 1990s+ N+10 to N+30 1999 2000/2005
Most Intellectual Publications are on Web
2001 2008 late 1990s N+5 to N+30 1999-2002 2000/2005
Information Storage $0.01 per Megabyte
2010 2020 N+1 to N+10 2015 2010/2010
Computer Implanted in Brain
2015 2045 2010 N+1 to N+10 2020-2050 2010/2020
Human-Brain Equivalent Computers on a Desk
2030 2030 2004-2019 2010 S-3*DAF 2030 2040/2050
Human-Level A.I.
2030 2050 2004-2019 2010 2040-2150 2150/2200
Uploaded Minds
2060 2125 2006-2021 S+7*DAF 2040-2100 2300/2400
Uploads Running 1000x Faster than Humans
2080 2125 2006-2021 S-3*DAF 2045-2100 2450/2450
Benford Drexler Miller Szabo
Bridge FM-2030 More
Big Fraction of Economy Off Earth
2200 2100 2006-2021 S+20*DAF+20 2100-2200 2150/2200
Big Fraction of Economy out of Solar System
2800 3000 2011-2026 S+20*DAF+(50-200) 3000 2400/2500
Comet Mining, Javelins, Drugs, etc. (robotic space industry)
2080 2075 2006-2021 2050 2040/2060
First Person on Mars
2050 2025 2006-2021 2010-2020 N+15 to S+2*DAF 2025 2040/2060
First Person in Another Solar System
2400 2085 2011-2026 2030-2050 S+10*DAF+20 2150-2400 2200/2400
Reproducing Comet Eaters
2070
Reproducing Asteroid Eaters
2150 2045 2006-2021 2050-2070 2140/2180
Reproducing Starships
2300 2200 2006-2021 S+2*DAF 2350/2400
Benford Drexler Miller Szabo
Bridge FM-2030 More
1,000,000+ People Using Anon. Electronic Cash
2010 2020 1990s N+10toN+30 to never 1999-2006 1997/1999
30%+ of Labor Telecommutes
2015 2030 1990s never never 2000/2050
Untaxable Economy Using Electronic Cash $100b/year
2020 N+20 to never 2010-2115 1997/2005
Ocean Colonization
20020 2020/2045 never 2010-2050 now/2040
Most Education Privatized
2005 2050 N+10 to S+50 now/2040
Most Law Enforcement Privatized
2010 2095 S+50 to never now/2150
Most Law Choice Privatized
2020 never on Earth S+20*DAF+20tonever now/2150
National Defense Privatized
never never on Earth never now/2200
Betting Markets a Big Policy Influence
never never S+20*DAF+20 2000/2100
Lots of figures here, and it's pretty hard to see the logic behind some
of them. Benford and Szabo put Reproducing Starships out in the 24th
century, while Drexler could have them coming out the year after next.
Actually, Drexler is kind of a one-note-Charlie here, putting almost
everything in the 2006-2026 time frame, even Big Fraction of Economy out
of Solar System. I guess he assumes a nanotech singularity scenario.
The interstellar economy would presumably be self-reproducing space probes
zooming away from Earth in all directions and furiously converting nearby
star systems into computronium or some such.
I see Benford and Szabo as the most conservative, with Bridge and More
taking a middle ground, and Drexler and FM-2030 being the most aggressive.
FM's predictions don't make much sense to me but maybe they should be
thought of as somewhat metaphorical or poetic, which is how I perceive
his writing.
Other interesting aspects of the survey include the topic selection,
which is kind of a snapshot of the items of interest to the Extropian
community in the 1995 time frame. I also note the absence of Eliezer
Yudkowski's influential conception of the Singularity as a sudden
transition to world whose rules, possibly even whose physics, are
determined by AIs of virtually infinite intelligence.
Hal
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