[extropy-chat] Boredom in old age

[Harvey Newstrom]

Max More wrote,
> At 10:10 AM 12/3/2003, Harvey wrote:
> 
> >I also just realized that I am a professional pessimist.
> 
> I shouldn't encourage you, but...
> 
> Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives' 
> Decisions by Dan Lovallo; Daniel Kahneman Harvard Business 
> Review, Editor reviewed on 07/07/03, originally published 
> on 07/01/03 http://www.manyworlds.com/exploreCO.asp?coid=CO77031947495

Excellent article!  This is exactly what I am seeing when I audit.  Some
managers have rose-colored glasses and assume the best about their
organization, in the absence of knowledge.  Just like the pointy-haired boss
in Dilbert, they assume what they don't know about must be easy, what they
haven't verified must be OK, and what they haven't followed up on probably
turned out OK.  When they plan projects, they shrink every task down to the
minimum time they think they can squeeze it to, parallel as many tasks as
could ever be done simultaneously, and predict the lowest cost at every step
of the way.  In the end, they end up with a gigantic project with thousands
of items underestimated.  A single delay or cost overrun on any single item
will destroy the whole project plan, and they always are surprised when it
happens.

I don't run my bank account that way.  I can't spend every single penny at
the beginning of the month and assume that I won't have any unforeseen
expenses.  I don't leave for an appointment at the last possible second and
assume I will make every green traffic light between here and there.  It is
not pessimism, but realism, to predict average-case scenarios instead of
best-case scenarios for everything.  Statistically speaking, the average
scenario is most likely, while the best-case scenario is least likely.
Multiplying all the best-case scenarios together usually give an infinitely
impossible chance that the boss's predictions can all come true and the
project turn out as planned.

P.S.  I also finished David Allen's book _Getting_Things_Done_.  It was as
helpful as you suggested, Max.  It is basic straight-forward organizational
skills for keeping track of a million to-do's, appointments, priorities,
projects, sequences, etc.  My own system is very close to his already, but I
picked up quite a few pointers.  I love checklists and reminders!  I don't
*want* an expert of any kind trying to do everything off the top of their
head by what they can remember.  If they reference a complete
industry-approved standard list, and then show how they meet every point,
then I am much more impressed that simply having a genius-expert say "It
looks alright to me."  Having external checklists, reminders, PDA's,
software, and standard references will make anybody function beyond their
natural human ability.  It is the first step toward transhumanism!

-- 
Harvey Newstrom, CISSP, CISA, CISM, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC
Certified IS Security Pro, Certified IS Auditor, Certified InfoSec Manager,
NSA Certified Assessor, IBM Certified Consultant, SANS Certified GIAC
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