[extropy-chat] Extropy #15 Timeline
Avatar Polymorph
avatar at renegadeclothing.com.au
Tue Dec 16 00:52:21 UTC 2003
Sub-quantum engineering on Proto-Earth: 2027
General end of Quarantine in this universe (nodal stem): c. 115 billion post
Big Bang
----- Original Message -----
From: "Hal Finney" <hal at finney.org>
To: <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Sent: Wednesday, December 03, 2003 6:51 PM
Subject: [extropy-chat] Extropy #15 Timeline
> Max More wrote:
> > It would be
> > interesting to dig out the issue of Extropy that featured a range of
> > predicted dates for various events. I recall that Eric Drexler had
highly
> > optimistic projections, but others looked to 100+ years for many of the
> > items listed. I think I was somewhere in the middle. If anyone has the
> > issue at hand along with an OCR scanner, it would provide some
interesting
> > data points.
>
> Coincidentally, someone posted this URL on the FX (idea futures game)
> discussion list:
http://web.archive.org/web/20030212092807/www.lucifer.com/~sean/N-FX/.
> This is a Wayback Machine archive of an article on nanotech timelines,
> and it includes a link to the Extropy issue which had that article.
> Unfortunately, the archive failed to capture that issue, but the link
> does identify it as Extropy #15, which I happen to have, and I can go
> ahead and type in the data.
>
> The predictors are Gregory Benford; Steve Bridge; Eric Drexler; FM-2030;
> Mark Miller; Max More; and Nick Szabo. These predictions are from 1995.
> Explanatory notes include:
>
> Szabo - "The first number is when something might be possible under ideal
> engineering, economic, and politilcal conditions. 'now' means we could
> have done it already. The second number is the practical prediction,
> based primarily on the viewpoint of starting a business..."
>
> Bridge - "My answers are based on when something will 'actually happen'
> rather than on when it will be possible."
>
> Miller - "I will use the following variables: N = Now, 1995; S =
> Singularity; DAF = Design Ahead Factor.... I predict Singularity as
> occuring between N+10 and N+40.... I introduce a Design Ahead Factor
> which I define as 10/(S-N). If Singularity occurs in 10 years, DAF is 1.
> If Singularity occurs in 40 years, DAF is 1/4."
>
> Here is the table, modulo possible typos. You will need to use a
monospace
> font to get the columns to line up:
>
> Benford Drexler Miller
Szabo
> Bridge FM-2030 More
>
> Frozen Organ Transplant Is Routine
> 2020 2010 never 1990s+ N+20 if (S>N+30)
1999-2008 2020-2030
> Two Century Biological Lifespans
> 2150 2050/2140 never 2010-2020 never
2015-2040 2040/2100
> Indefinite Biological Lifespans
> 2300 2080 1967 S+50
2020-2045 2090/2150
> Reanimation for Last Cryonics Suspendee
> 2100 2060 2006-2021 S+6*DAF
2025-2055 2050/2200
> Reanimation for Current Cryonics Suspendees
> 2200 2090 2006-2021 2020 S+10*DAF
2030-2100 2400/2410
> Biotech Cures for Most Heart Disease, Cancer & Aging
> 2030 2030 never 1990s+ S+10*DAF
2015-2040 2090/2130
> Fine-Tuned Mood/Motivation Transformation Drugs
> 2010 2020 ?-2021 1990s+ N+10
1998-2010 2040/2050
> Genius Drugs (>20 pts permanent IQ increase for most people)
> 2030 2020 ?-2021 S-10 to S+10*DAF
2020-2060 2010/2050
>
> Benford Drexler Miller
Szabo
> Bridge FM-2030 More
>
> Human Germ-Line Gene Therapy
> 2040 2007/2025 1990s N+20 2010
now/2010
> Human Child Gestated Completely in Artificial Womb
> 2020 2050 2010-2020 S-5 to S-2*DAF
2015-2035 2100/2120
> Cloning of a Human Being
> 2050 2020 2010 S-5 to S+4*DAF 2010
now/2010
> Completely Genetically Composed Children
> 2060 2050
2015-2020 2060/2100
> Extinct Species Reanimation (from preserved DNA)
> 2100 2025 ?-2021 N+5 to S+1
2010/2020
>
> Benford Drexler Miller
Szabo
> Bridge FM-2030 More
>
> Cryonics Industry Revenues $1 billion/year
> 2035 2015 2010-2020 N+30 (if S>N+30)
2015-2020 now/2020
> Nanotech Factories
> 2100 2030/2050 2006-2021 2010-2020 S-3 to S+1
2015-2030 2070/2080
> Atomically Detailed Design for Self-Reproducing Drexler-style Assembler
> 2070 2015 1998-2010 N+7
2000-2015 2100/2100
> High-Degree of Freedom Cell Repair Nanomachines
> 2075 2040/2060 2006/2021 2010 S+2*DAF
2160/2180
> Reproducing Nanotech Assemblers
> 2080 2025 2004-2019 S-3 to S+1
2020-2030 2120/2140
> Really Cheap Fusion Power
> 2100 2040 2010-2020
2010-2020 2200/2210
> Nukes as Cheap as Tanks
> 2105 2015
2040-2050 2100/2150
> Nukes as Cheap as Handguns
> never never
2200/2250
>
> Benford Drexler Miller
Szabo
> Bridge FM-2030 More
>
> Most Publications are Electronic
> 2015 2015 1990s+ N+10 to N+30 1999
2000/2005
> Most Intellectual Publications are on Web
> 2001 2008 late 1990s N+5 to N+30
1999-2002 2000/2005
> Information Storage $0.01 per Megabyte
> 2010 2020 N+1 to N+10 2015
2010/2010
> Computer Implanted in Brain
> 2015 2045 2010 N+1 to N+10
2020-2050 2010/2020
> Human-Brain Equivalent Computers on a Desk
> 2030 2030 2004-2019 2010 S-3*DAF 2030
2040/2050
> Human-Level A.I.
> 2030 2050 2004-2019 2010
2040-2150 2150/2200
> Uploaded Minds
> 2060 2125 2006-2021 S+7*DAF
2040-2100 2300/2400
> Uploads Running 1000x Faster than Humans
> 2080 2125 2006-2021 S-3*DAF
2045-2100 2450/2450
>
> Benford Drexler Miller
Szabo
> Bridge FM-2030 More
>
> Big Fraction of Economy Off Earth
> 2200 2100 2006-2021 S+20*DAF+20
2100-2200 2150/2200
> Big Fraction of Economy out of Solar System
> 2800 3000 2011-2026 S+20*DAF+(50-200) 3000
2400/2500
> Comet Mining, Javelins, Drugs, etc. (robotic space industry)
> 2080 2075 2006-2021 2050
2040/2060
> First Person on Mars
> 2050 2025 2006-2021 2010-2020 N+15 to S+2*DAF 2025
2040/2060
> First Person in Another Solar System
> 2400 2085 2011-2026 2030-2050 S+10*DAF+20
2150-2400 2200/2400
> Reproducing Comet Eaters
> 2070
> Reproducing Asteroid Eaters
> 2150 2045 2006-2021
2050-2070 2140/2180
> Reproducing Starships
> 2300 2200 2006-2021 S+2*DAF
2350/2400
>
> Benford Drexler Miller
Szabo
> Bridge FM-2030 More
>
> 1,000,000+ People Using Anon. Electronic Cash
> 2010 2020 1990s N+10toN+30 to never
1999-2006 1997/1999
> 30%+ of Labor Telecommutes
> 2015 2030 1990s never never
2000/2050
> Untaxable Economy Using Electronic Cash $100b/year
> 2020 N+20 to never
2010-2115 1997/2005
> Ocean Colonization
> 20020 2020/2045 never
2010-2050 now/2040
> Most Education Privatized
> 2005 2050 N+10 to S+50
now/2040
> Most Law Enforcement Privatized
> 2010 2095 S+50 to never
now/2150
> Most Law Choice Privatized
> 2020 never on Earth S+20*DAF+20tonever
now/2150
> National Defense Privatized
> never never on Earth never
now/2200
> Betting Markets a Big Policy Influence
> never never S+20*DAF+20
2000/2100
>
>
> Lots of figures here, and it's pretty hard to see the logic behind some
> of them. Benford and Szabo put Reproducing Starships out in the 24th
> century, while Drexler could have them coming out the year after next.
> Actually, Drexler is kind of a one-note-Charlie here, putting almost
> everything in the 2006-2026 time frame, even Big Fraction of Economy out
> of Solar System. I guess he assumes a nanotech singularity scenario.
> The interstellar economy would presumably be self-reproducing space probes
> zooming away from Earth in all directions and furiously converting nearby
> star systems into computronium or some such.
>
> I see Benford and Szabo as the most conservative, with Bridge and More
> taking a middle ground, and Drexler and FM-2030 being the most aggressive.
> FM's predictions don't make much sense to me but maybe they should be
> thought of as somewhat metaphorical or poetic, which is how I perceive
> his writing.
>
> Other interesting aspects of the survey include the topic selection,
> which is kind of a snapshot of the items of interest to the Extropian
> community in the 1995 time frame. I also note the absence of Eliezer
> Yudkowski's influential conception of the Singularity as a sudden
> transition to world whose rules, possibly even whose physics, are
> determined by AIs of virtually infinite intelligence.
>
> Hal
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
>
More information about the extropy-chat
mailing list