[extropy-chat] Mathematics could stabilize peace treaties

[Harvey Newstrom]

Giu1i0 Pri5c0 wrote,
> Game theory might help draw up war settlements, from Nature: A political
> scientist at the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico has devised a
> mathematical method that could help civil-war negotiators to find the
> most stable peace treaties.

<http://www.nature.com/nsu/031215/031215-1.html>

Very interesting stuff, Giu1i0!  Keep 'em coming!
(How do you pronounce "Giu1i0 Pri5c0" anyway?)  

Great as this seems to be, I am not sure warring factions will listen to
reason.  They never seem to, so even improved reason may not help.  I
perceive the following problems that this solution does not address.

1.  Even the author admits that most people fight because they perceive the
opposing side as unwilling to stop.  This mathematical theory does not solve
that problem.

2.  It also calculates the best possible outcome for stopping now.  But what
if the fighters still believe they can get more by continuing the fight?
Most war supporters seem to think right makes might, and that their side
will eventually win.  Why would they want to stop now and negotiate a
compromise when they can keep fighting and get more spoils later?

3.  Many wars, such as in the Middle East, are based on religion.  This
theory is not very applicable in religious disputes where any compromise or
apportionment is deemed unacceptable.  For example, will either side in
Jerusalem allow some percentage of their holy sites to be blasphemed by a
false religion?  If not, then an apportionment will not work.  To such
religion fanatics, only 100% is not an affront to their religious beliefs.
Or in this country, will pro-lifers agree to a compromise where abortions
are reduced by 50%?  Probably not.  To them every abortion is a murder, and
even one is not acceptable.

This sounds like a wonder advance in game theory or apportionment
mathematics.  But it is a bit of a stretch to apply it to the monkey
psychology of war.

--
Harvey Newstrom, CISSP, CISA, CISM, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC
Certified IS Security Pro, Certified IS Auditor, Certified InfoSec Manager,
NSA Certified Assessor, IBM Certified Consultant, SANS Certified GIAC
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