[extropy-chat] Interview with a Luddite - Kevin Kelly's US$1, 000 Bet

[Hal Finney]

Natasha writes:

> Kelly: OK. [Pulls out a check.] Here's a check for a thousand dollars, made
> out to Bill Patrick, our mutual book editor. I bet you US$1,000 that in the
> year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe - a
> convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant
> warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some
> significant size. We won't even be close. I'll bet on my optimism. 
>
> Sale: [Pauses. Then smiles.] OK. 

Shortly after this issue of Wired came out in 1995, the Idea Futures
game (now called FX) created a claim about who would win the bet,
http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=NLud

The price chart at the bottom of the page can be interpreted as the
percentage likelihood that the players estimate for Sale to win his bet.
in the first couple of years, it ran about 10-20%; then from about 1998
to mid 2000 it was in the 30-40% range; and since then it has been 20-30%.

Looking at the three issues now, 8 years or about 1/3 of the way along,
it's harder in some ways to be optimistic than back in 1995 in the
heady days of the internet boom.  Global currency collapse still doesn't
look in the cards, and if it happens it seems more plausibly caused by
some unexpected and disruptive technology than economic mismanagement.
Environmental disaster in the next 16 years also doesn't seem likely, even
if the more aggressive global warming scenarios come true.  But widespread
warfare between rich and poor nations is harder to rule out in today's
contentious international environment.

I'm a little unclear on the terms of the bet if just one or two of Sale's
predictions comes close to being right.  I guess that will be a judgement
call; maybe the judge will award partial points to one side or the other.

Hal