[extropy-chat] "The Spike" - Raymond Kurzweil

[Eugen Leitl]

On Thu, Oct 30, 2003 at 12:15:36PM -0600, Damien Broderick wrote:

> *Obviously* computer bang for buck, etc, has been increasing pretty much as
> Ray charts so usefully in the essay cited. This is the very basis of the

Actually, that's not at all obvious, if we're looking at computer
performance, not integration density (which Moore is all about). Integration
density is real, but it's a potential performance, until it results in
real-world traction. This is this not exactly obscure STREAM benchmark thingy:

	http://www.cs.virginia.edu/stream/

which shows this neat little semi-log plot:

	http://www.cs.virginia.edu/stream/stream_logo.gif 

Even then: CPU speed is not integration density, and STREAM memory bandwidth
is still a synthetic benchmark. A lot of AI code candidates will perform at <<10% of
peak. This is the really really really bad news to notorious optimists.

So, yes, a lot of how people view Kurzweil results in bogus claims.

> technological singularity discerned by Dr Vinge and discussed in my book and
> Ray's. The question is whether this contingent fact of local technological
> history can be projected backwards across space and time to yield a general
> `Law of Accelerating Returns'. To cite that paper:

-- Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a>
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