[extropy-chat] A job for me?

[Emlyn O'regan]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Alfio Puglisi [mailto:puglisi at arcetri.astro.it]
> Sent: Tuesday, 4 November 2003 3:25 AM
> To: ExI chat list
> Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] A job for me?
> 
> 
> On Mon, 3 Nov 2003 kevinfreels at hotmail.com wrote:
> 
> >An article I read that analyzes future trends in employment 
> has me a bit nervous:
> >http://education.guardian.co.uk/further/story/0,5500,1074083,00.html
> >
> >Being a mortgage broker for the last few years, I have 
> enjoyed watching my job become simpler. The technology 
> improvements so far have made it possible for me to work from home.
> >A careful analysis of this trend however has forced me to 
> accept a frightening possibility. My job may not exist 10 
> years from now!
> >Currently, many specialized web applications exist that 
> allow me to put in a customer's application and get an 
> underwriting decision in minutes. All that is left is 
> selecting the right loan, gathering the required 
> documentation, and submitting it to an underwriter who then 
> decides if that documentation is acceptable to meet the 
> neccessary guidelines for that particular loan program. At 
> this point, they prepare loan documents and send them to the 
> closing agent for closing.
> >It only stands to reason that when solid verification 
> software and text reading software come online that are 
> capable of handling these duties, the job of brokering, and 
> even underwriting will be left to computers. This can be 
> handled without any AI. It will only take some very 
> complicated software. Software that could probably be built 
> right now if someone wanted to invest millions in development 
> costs. In time, it will come.
> >This is a business that I know well, and it is all I am 
> formally trained in with the exception of a 4 year old A+ 
> certification that isn't worth a dime any more.
> >I have decided that I need to find a new career and go back 
> to school.
> 
> Or, you can find a new career as one of the experts in this 
> job.  Whoever
> will make the software will need programmers, funding, and someone who
> know what the better strategies are. The programs will need 
> to be tested,
> mantained, upgraded, new ideas must be incorporated in a 
> sensible way. The
> project director must be well versed in the field. Someone 
> who has already
> worked in it before.
> 
> Ciao,
> Afio

I agree with Afio. It sounds as though you *like* being a mortgage broker,
and have no particular plans in other directions. So start up a venture to
computerise it yourself, or get involved with someone else who can do it.
Between a domain expert such as yourself, and some competent programmer that
you can con into helping you gratis (well, for a slice of the pie of
course), you could build a server based automated mortgage broking solution
a little bit at a time. Just automate the most obviously useful thing first,
then the next most obvious thing, and so on. Eventually you might be able to
automate the whole job, but in the meantime you'll be able to stay way out
in front of your competitors by being able to work more quickly, with higher
quality, less errors, and better information, also probably tracking your
money from lending institutions better. A decent web based app should also
give you the ability to charge other brokers for its use, thereby getting
out of direct mortgage broking, and into service provision for other
brokers. Eventually, you will eat all of their lunches, but in the meantime
they provide you with the path from single operator to automated empire!

Emlyn