[extropy-chat] A job for me?

[Eugen Leitl]

On Mon, Nov 03, 2003 at 05:52:13PM -0800, Adrian Tymes wrote:
> 
> Such is the cycle of much that is AI at one point:

We don't have AI. AI doesn't mean artificial stupidity.
Intelligence doesn't mean being an idiot savant. Isolated skills do not
cumulate, nor do they magically integrate into a seamless whole -- so far.

If we're lucky, we'll see some of it happening in a couple decades.
 
> First it is impossible.

It is.

> Then it is AI.

No, it's still impossible. We haven't made any fundamental advances for two
human generations. People still enter text into editors when they want to
solve a problem.

> Then it is in the lab.
> Then it is deployable, but expensive.
> Then it is usable and cheap.
> Then it is free and ubiquitous.
> 
> When the ability to translate from rough natural
> language descriptions to running code becomes free

We're still several years away from suffiently accurate speech recognition, a
comparatively trivial task. If coupled with a dumb dialog system it's good
enough for a natural language UI, but it won't suddenly start improving
itself one day it has processing resources to spare.

I'd put self-improvement ability at fully interactive Augmented Reality to
obtain behaviour constraints from (it would be essentially fully interactive
evolutionary programming on steroids and fast-forward). We don't have the
hardware base to render anything but the flick part of that.

> and ubiquitous, we will have passed our current
> Singularity - but perhaps be able to envision a new
> one from there.

You don't see an event horizont when traversing a singularity. It's all in
the eye of the external observer.
 
-- Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a>
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