[extropy-chat] Social Implications of Nanotech

[Hal Finney]

I have a lot of trouble considering these future scenarios.  All these
possibilities get mixed together, sometimes in contradictory ways.

What about AI?  Surely computer aided design will be much farther along,
and even if Moore's Law stops working in the next decade, nanotech could
put us back on track.  This should greatly decrease the need for human
engineers, although artistic ability may not be so easy to bottle.

Likewise for robotics?

What will these imply for labor?  How will people work, what will they
do?  What will happen if the demand for labor begins dropping by several
percent per year or even faster, over a multi-year period?

PGMDs would essentially eliminate transportation, labor and capital costs
for products.  What else is there?  Design and marketing?  What if the
AIs can do most of that, too?

Even if we keep factories, presumably the same improved efficiencies
in the manufacuring process can apply to transportation and any other
costs which can be further automated or made more efficient.

What exactly are the PGMDs building all day?  Could we reach a state
of satiation, where we simply can't consume as much as our machines can
produce?  What would that imply for the economy?  Or would we always be
in a situation of scarcity?

Could we have an "open source" economy, where people work on whatever
interests them, or create designs that satisfy their own needs, then
make the fruits of their labor available to everyone for free?

What if nanotech ultimately drives capital costs to near zero, eliminates
labor as a component of manufacturing costs, drastically reduces design
costs, and similarly makes every economic factor tremendously cheaper?
What does the resulting economy look like?

If nanotech really does all this, then whether it happens in one year
or twenty years, you're going to have major dislocations.  I think it
would be useful to see an economic analysis of the economy in a mature
nanotech era like this.  Maybe it is obvious to an economist, but it is
hard for a non-specialist to see how all the pieces would fit together,
when everything is so different from what we are used to.

Hal