[extropy-chat] I'm back.

[Eliezer S. Yudkowsky]

Dan Clemmensen wrote:
> 
> Unfortunately, this non-quantitative logic does not permit me to assign 
> a probability to 2006. It only allows me to assert that the probability 
> increases with time.

Yes, well, that's why I assert that the probability increases with time, 
yet I do not assert that the Singularity will occur on or before May 1, 2006.

Take a deep breath.  Switch over all of your deliberate mental reasoning 
to thinking in terms of probability density functions.  Exhale.  You'll 
feel much better.

I've accepted as fact the amazing human ability to clearly analyze a 
mistake, correctly state the rational alternative, and then, smiling 
cherubically, commit the mistake, but y'know, it's still a bit frustrating 
to watch it in action.

-- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence