[extropy-chat] Harv's Explanation for Slow Progress

[Harvey Newstrom]

Hal Finney wrote,
> Harvey writes:
> 
> > Why no singularity 10 years after somebody predicted it on this list? 
> 
> I question whether anyone on this list made those 
> predictions. Who predicted the Singularity by 2003?  I 
> remember Eliezer saying 2008, and Dan Clemmensen is 
> apparently sticking to 2006.

Unless you are seriously arguing for the singularity within the next 2 or 5
years, you are not refuting my point.

> Ironically, the biggest change I see is one no one 
> anticipated, and is social rather than technical: our ideas 
> have gone from almost total obscurity to being among the most 
> important and controversial issues for public discussion and 
> debate.

Strangely, I don't see such a dramatic change.  I used to argue that these
ideas aren't new and appeared in science fiction decades ago.  Now that
everybody agrees that these ideas are unique, they think that we have
changed the world.  Instead of paying attention to how many people have the
same ideas, we need to focus on how many members our organizations have.
Our small numbers in no way support the idea that we have brought about
these changes.

> Who would have imagined ten years ago that we would 
> have a Presidential Council opining about transhumanism? Look 
> at the table of contents from their October, 2003 report, at
> http://www.bioethics.gov/reports/beyondtherapy/fulldoc.html:
> 
> > Chapter One: Biotechnology and the Pursuit of Happiness
> > Chapter Two: Better Children 
> > Chapter Three: Superior Performance 
> > Chapter Four: Ageless Bodies 
> > Chapter Five: Happy Souls 
> 
> These topics could have been taken from the subject lines of 
> this list at any time over the past ten years, and now they 
> are being discussed at the highest levels: ageless bodies, 

They could have been taken from our list, but they weren't.  None of us are
listed in the bibliography.  The report doesn't reference any of our
institutions.  The more accurate explanation for this phenomenon is that our
members have been copying these same references to our lists over the years.

> I will go out on a limb and predict that within 10-12 years, 
> our ideas will have gained in popularity, and technology will 
> have continued to move incrementally forward, so that we will 
> see a major, organized social effort to push for one or more 
> transhumanist goals, perhaps some of those on Harvey's list.  
> People will want these things, and they will by then be close 
> enough that a concerted effort can bring them into our grasp. 
> It may be AI, nanotech, life extension, or some technology we 
> didn't quite anticipate.  But I think we will see some major 
> new efforts beginning in the decade of the 2010's.

It is an old truism among technology researchers.  The next big revolution
is about 10 years away.  It is always 10 years away.

-- 
Harvey Newstrom, CISSP, CISA, CISM, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC
Certified IS Security Pro, Certified IS Auditor, Certified InfoSec Manager,
NSA Certified Assessor, IBM Certified Consultant, SANS Certified GIAC
<HarveyNewstrom.com> <Newstaff.com>