[extropy-chat] "The Spike"- Ray Kurzweil

[pietro ferri]

>My sense is that the whole notion of technological singularity *precludes*
>detailed prediction. That's what I keep asserting all through my book.
>Science is radically unpredictable; technology is tied to somewhat
>unpredictable socially-driven discontinuities. As far as I can see, the
>Spike might happen any time between next week and the end of the century.

Exaclty! My point is to state that you profoundly diagree with Ray's 
timeline predictions because, in your own words, science is radically 
unpredictable. But when one reads Ray's books one gets the feeling that 
future science/technology IS predictable, or at the very least broadly 
predictable.

>I'm not a critic of strong AI, quite the reverse. I have no argument with
>Ray in that respect.

Well, I just wanted to make the point that Ray likes to publicly debate with 
his critics, whether it be about AI , His "Laws" or whatever. o, why don't 
you debate about the "Law" direclty with him? I am sure that it would be of 
great interest to every extropian!

>`“The Singularity is Near” is Not That Near' :)

Maybe next week? :-)

Pietro Ferri

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