[extropy-chat] Re: Damien grants psi evidence

[Dirk Bruere]

Damien Broderick wrote:

> At 03:36 PM 12/18/2004 +1100, David <deimtee at optusnet.com.au> wrote:
>
>> I assume someone must have already thought of the possibility that
>> if PK effects are real then millions of punters all mentally
>> commanding different numbers to be drawn may well cancel each
>> other out.
>
>
> This is one of the obvious possibilities parapsychologists thought of 
> as quickly as you did. And it is apparent from the results of all the 
> lottos ever conducted that if PK is real, it isn't cumulative in this 
> way. How so? Because an enormous number of punters are guided by 
> birthdays. That means they're all rooting (apologies to Aussies) for 
> the range 1-31, especially 1-12. Birth years are less likely to have 
> any bearing. There are other numbers known to get more or less than 
> their fair share, depending on their position on the entry form 
> (people dislike edges). My book shows which they are; by selecting 
> your numbers from the dispreferred options, you'll increase your share 
> of the winnings *if those numbers happen by chance to come up*. If 
> group PK were in play, it's unlikely that any of the numbers 31 and up 
> would *ever* be drawn. In reality, there's not much variation in the 
> presentation histories of the randomized balls, as the null hypothesis 
> predicts.

Except:

a) People have been found to score low when they were aiming high, and 
vice versa
b) If there is a QM effect  it would tend to manifest far more strongly 
when the 'wishing' was coincident, or very close in time, to the event 
being influenced.
c) Most people are like me. They buy a ticket and then forget about it 
until the numbers are drawn and published, usually the next day.

-- 
Dirk

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