[extropy-chat] Bayes, crackpots and psi

[BillK]

On Mon, 20 Dec 2004 21:48:37 -0500, Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote:
> *However*, I'm still not shifting my focus of attention to psi until you
> actually do win the lottery.
> 


SKEPTIC PITIED
Fayetteville man reluctant to embrace the unverifiable

from www.theonion.com

FAYETTEVILLE, AR—Craig Schaffner, 46, a Fayetteville-area computer
consultant, has earned the pity of friends and acquaintances for his tragic
reluctance to embrace the unverifiable, sources reported Monday.

  [image] Above: The tragically skeptical Schaffner.

"I honestly feel sorry for the guy," said neighbor Michael Eddy, 54, a
born-again Christian. "To live in this world not believing in a higher
power, doubting that Christ died for our sins — that's such a sad, cynical
way to live. I don't know how he gets through his day."

Coworker Donald Cobb, who spends roughly 20 percent of his annual income on
telephone psychics and tarot-card readings, similarly extended his
compassion for Schaffner.

"Craig is a really great guy," Cobb said. "It's just too bad he's chosen to
cut himself off from the world of the paranormal, restricting himself to the
limited universe of what can be seen and heard and verified through
empirical evidence."

Also feeling pity for Schaffner is his former girlfriend Aimee Brand, a
holistic and homeopathic healer who earns a living selling tonics and
medicines diluted to one molecule per gallon in the belief that the water
"remembers" the curative properties of the medication.

"Don't get me wrong — logic and reason have their place," Brand said. "But
Craig fails to recognize the danger of going too far with medical common
sense to the exclusion of alternative New Age remedies like chakra cleansing
and energy-field realignment."

Eddy said he has tried repeatedly to pull Schaffner back from the precipice
of lucidity.

"I admit, science might be great for curing diseases, exploring space,
cataloguing the natural phenomena of our world, saving endangered species,
extending the human lifespan, and enriching the quality of that life," Eddy
said. "But at the end of the day, science has nothing to tell us about the
human soul, and that's a critical thing Craig is missing. I would hate for
his soul to be lost forever because of a stubborn doubt over the actual
existence and nature of that soul."

Gina Hitchens, a lifelong astrology devotee, blamed Schaffner's lack of
faith on an accident of birth.

"Craig can't entirely help himself, being a Gemini," Hitchens said. "Geminis
are always very skeptical and destined to feel pain throughout life as a
result of their closed-mindedness. If you try to introduce Craig to anything
even remotely made-up, he starts going off about 'evidence this' and 'proof
that.' If only the poor man were open-minded enough to stop attacking
everything with his brain and just once look into his heart, he'd find all
the proof he needed. But, sadly, he's unable to let even a little bit of
imagination drive his core beliefs."

Perhaps the person who pities Schaffner most is his brother Frank, a
practicing Scientologist since 1991.

"It's bad enough when someone has the ignorance to reject Dianetics in spite
of its tremendous popularity," Frank said. "But Craig isn't even willing to
try a free introductory course. Scientology has the potential to free
humanity from the crippling yoke of common sense, unshackling billions from
the chains of century after century of scientific precedent, and yet he
still won't give it a try."

"I realize that Craig seems very happy with his narrow little
common-sense-based worldview," Frank continued, "but when you think of all
the widely embraced beliefs that are excluded by that way of thinking, you
have to feel kind of sad."


;)  BillK