[extropy-chat] silent night

[Eliezer Yudkowsky]

Hal Finney wrote:
> How the heck can you guys say that there is as much as one chance in
> ten thousand that the sun won't rise tomorrow?  The sun has after all
> risen for much more than 10,000 days.  That's like 30 years' worth.

That was before people started playing around with AI.  99.99% would 
correspond to a 50% chance of a rogue AI disassembling the Sun in the next 
20 years, with the probability distributed evenly over time (Poisson process).

-- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence