[extropy-chat] silent night

[Eliezer Yudkowsky]

Harvey Newstrom wrote:
> 
> On Dec 22, 2004, at 11:27 PM, Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote:
> 
>> Hal Finney wrote:
>>
>>> How the heck can you guys say that there is as much as one chance in
>>> ten thousand that the sun won't rise tomorrow?  The sun has after all
>>> risen for much more than 10,000 days.  That's like 30 years' worth.
>>
>> That was before people started playing around with AI.  99.99% would 
>> correspond to a 50% chance of a rogue AI disassembling the Sun in the 
>> next 20 years, with the probability distributed evenly over time 
>> (Poisson process).
> 
> I will bet any amount of money that the sun will still exist 20 years 
> from now.

Are you sure?  An FAI could take apart the Sun too, y'know.  You could lose 
the bet, and still be alive to pay it.

-- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence