[extropy-chat] silent night

[duggerj1 at charter.net]

> 
> From: Eliezer Yudkowsky <sentience at pobox.com>
> Date: 2004/12/22 Wed PM 11:05:34 CST
> To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] silent night
> 
> Harvey Newstrom wrote:
> > 
> > On Dec 22, 2004, at 11:27 PM, Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote:
> > 
> >> Hal Finney wrote:
> >>
> >>> How the heck can you guys say that there is as much as one chance in
> >>> ten thousand that the sun won't rise tomorrow?  The sun has after all
> >>> risen for much more than 10,000 days.  That's like 30 years' worth.
> >>
> >> That was before people started playing around with AI.  99.99% would 
> >> correspond to a 50% chance of a rogue AI disassembling the Sun in the 
> >> next 20 years, with the probability distributed evenly over time 
> >> (Poisson process).
> > 
> > I will bet any amount of money that the sun will still exist 20 years 
> > from now.
> 
> Are you sure?  An FAI could take apart the Sun too, y'know.  You could lose 
> the bet, and still be alive to pay it.
> 

Perhaps, but then the bet no longer depends on Earth's rotation. I might bet any creature powerful enough to dismantle a star without exterminating local life will have restraint enough to avoid taking the action.

> -- 
> Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
> Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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Jay Dugger     :     Til Eulenspiegel
http://www.owlmirror.net/~duggerj/
Sometimes the delete key serves best.