Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] silent night

[Rob Wilkes]

Um, I know I'm being a smartass here but the sun cannot be dissassembled. 
 It is a plasma and thus, is already in pieces.  Does that settle the wager 
either way?
Rob

On 23 Dec 2004 Harvey Newstrom wrote:

On Dec 23, 2004, at 12:05 AM, Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote:

> Harvey Newstrom wrote:
>> On Dec 22, 2004, at 11:27 PM, Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote:
>>> Hal Finney wrote:
>>>
>>>> How the heck can you guys say that there is as much as one chance in
>>>> ten thousand that the sun won't rise tomorrow?  The sun has after
>>>> all
>>>> risen for much more than 10,000 days.  That's like 30 years' worth.
>>>
>>> That was before people started playing around with AI.  99.99% would
>>> correspond to a 50% chance of a rogue AI disassembling the Sun in
>>> the next 20 years, with the probability distributed evenly over time
>>> (Poisson process).
>> I will bet any amount of money that the sun will still exist 20 years
>> from now.
>
> Are you sure?  An FAI could take apart the Sun too, y'know.  You could
> lose the bet, and still be alive to pay it.

I do not believe AI can advance that far in 20 years.  I don't believe
we will have the technology to disassemble the sun in 20 years.  I
don't believe reproducing nanites or nanites that can survive the sun's
heat will be developed in 20 years.  I don't believe a space ship
capable of carrying such a project to the sun will be available in 20
years.  I don't believe humans will be rearranging planets and starts
within 20 years.  I think such predictions are beyond the realm of even
fantasy within 20 years.  I wouldn't even read a science fiction story
that had such plot elements within 20 years.  It is too unbelievable.

And I will bet any amount of money against it, and retire rich in 20
years.

--
Harvey Newstrom <HarveyNewstrom.com>
CISSP, ISSAP, ISSMP, CISA, CISM, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC

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