[extropy-chat] silent night

[Adrian Tymes]

--- Harvey Newstrom <mail at HarveyNewstrom.com> wrote:
> I find it hard to believe that in the
> history of that  
> market, nobody tried to analyze the data.  More
> likely, I believe that  
> like me, nobody was able to extract evidence of
> long-term predicitons.   

How many people were working on it, for how long?  And
how much of their time was spent on it?  They may have
had other, more immediately important things to do,
and essentially forgotten about this project.  There's
certainly been enough interest generated that some
academics could further their careers by publishing an
analysis actively finding no long-term predictive
capability.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Although it most certainly is absence of evidence -
that is, it looks like it might not be fair to say
that the power of these markets has been "proven"
beyond any need to research them further.