[extropy-chat] silent night

[Harvey Newstrom]

On Dec 31, 2004, at 9:20 AM, Robin Hanson wrote:

> I pointed Harvey to a specific table in a specific paper with URL and 
> on 31 Dec, he wrote:
>> But that doesn't change the fact that this is still an unpublished, 
>> unfinished, draft manuscript, that has not been peer-reviewed or 
>> reproduced by others.  Even if this is no one's fault, it still has 
>> not yet reached the level of "proof" that you seem to ascribe to it.

Both true, but you are combining unrelated paragraphs.  The above 
answer was not my response to the above question.

> Harvey initially asked for "any evidence", I point him to many papers, 
> published in many different ways.  He complains that one of them is 
> not peer-review published yet, and so doesn't count as "proof", and 
> that the other papers don't count as "proof" unless I spoon-feed and 
> explain them to him.

I don't want random "evidence".  i want evidence of your claim about 
the Iowa Markets.  All but one of your papers were off-topic.

I never said unpublished papers don't count.  Again, you are connecting 
unrelated responses.  I pointed out that this paper was unpublished and 
that it claimed no previous papers had been published.  This was not my 
explanation as to why its methodology was flawed.

I never said papers don't count unless you spoon-feed them and explain 
them to me.  This was an insulting straw-man caricature that you 
invented to represent my position.

For the record, the relevant paragraph from my 
http://hanson.gmu.edu/moretrue.pdf is:
>> Decades of research on financial markets have shown that it is hard 
>> to find biases in
>> market estimates. The few direct comparisons made so far have found 
>> markets to be at least
>> as accurate as other institutions.

Sorry.  "At least as accurate" doesn't cut it.  Your claim was that the 
Iowa market beats the polls.  Where is that evidence?

>> Orange Juice futures improve on National Weather Service
>> forecasts (Roll, 1984), horse race markets beat horse race experts 
>> (Figlewski, 1979), Oscar
>> markets beat columnist forecasts (Pennock, Giles, & Nielsen, 2001), 
>> gas demand markets
>> beat gas demand experts (Spencer, 2004), stock markets beat the 
>> official NASA panel at
>> fingering the guilty company in the Challenger accident (Maloney & 
>> Mulherin, 2003), election
>> markets beat national opinion polls (Berg, Nelson, & Rietz, 2001), 
>> and corporate sales
>> markets beat official corporate forecasts (Chen & Plott, 1998).

Again, these are random citations about random market successes.  None 
of these discuss the Iowa markets or your claims for it.  You seem to 
be throwing out generic citations about markets in general.  Do you 
have anything specifically showing that the Iowa market beats polls?

--
Harvey Newstrom <HarveyNewstrom.com>
CISSP, ISSAP, ISSMP, CISA, CISM, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC