[extropy-chat] silent night

[Harvey Newstrom]

On Dec 31, 2004, at 1:25 PM, Hal Finney wrote:

> Harvey originally posted, from
> http://www.lucifer.com/pipermail/extropy-chat/2004-December/ 
> 012182.html :
>
>> Has anyone gotten any evidence that futures markets really can predict
>> the future?  I keep hearing the Iowa markets referenced as predicting
>> political elections, but I can't see it in their historical data.
>> Everything I found seems to show bad results or regular flip-flopping
>> to the point that they don't predict anything.  I would sure love to
>> see real historical data showing predictions.  My experience with
>> future prediction in general is that it is wrong more often than not.
>
> This was the basis from which the debate started.  It looks to me like
> this is a relatively open question which goes beyond the specific issue
> of the IEM.

Only if you take the first introductory sentence out of context without  
reading the rest of the paragraph.

The first part of the second sentence states what I have heard about  
Iowa market.
The second part of the second sentence states what I found in the  
historical data from the Iowa market.
The third sentence further describes problems I found with the  
historical data from the Iowa market.
The fourth sentence states what I hoped to find with regard to the Iowa  
market.

It boggles my mind that nobody knew I was asking about the Iowa market.
Thank you for clearing that up.

--
Harvey Newstrom <HarveyNewstrom.com>
CISSP, ISSAP, ISSMP, CISA, CISM, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC