[extropy-chat] More good stuff from Michael Crichton

[Paul Grant]

I just read an interesting paper about weather prediction;
not in the sense of what will happen tomorrow, but statistically,
what percentage of x can u expect.  Its based off of chaos theory,
primarily examining what portions of weather systems were scale
independent.  It was interesting/thought provoking.  Not sure if
I believe it (at this point).  But does indicate an interesting line
of thought.

omard-out


-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Max More
Sent: Monday, January 05, 2004 7:24 AM
To: Extropy Chat
Subject: [extropy-chat] More good stuff from Michael Crichton



Aliens Cause Global Warming

A lecture by Michael Crichton
Caltech Michelin Lecture
January 17, 2003
http://www.crichton-official.com/speeches/speeches_quote04.html


>When did "skeptic" become a dirty word in science? When did a skeptic
>require quotation marks around it?
>
>To an outsider, the most significant innovation in the global warming
>controversy is the overt reliance that is being placed on models. Back
in 
>the days of nuclear winter, computer models were invoked to add weight
to 
>a conclusion: "These results are derived with the help of a computer 
>model." But now large-scale computer models are seen as generating data
in 
>themselves. No longer are models judged by how well they reproduce data

>from the real world-increasingly, models provide the data. As if they
were 
>themselves a reality. And indeed they are, when we are projecting
forward. 
>There can be no observational data about the year 2100. There are only 
>model runs.
>
>This fascination with computer models is something I understand very 
>well.
>Richard Feynmann called it a disease. I fear he is right. Because only
if 
>you spend a lot of time looking at a computer screen can you arrive at
the 
>complex point where the global warming debate now stands.
>
>Nobody believes a weather prediction twelve hours ahead. Now we're 
>asked
>to believe a prediction that goes out 100 years into the future? And
make 
>financial investments based on that prediction? Has everybody lost
their 
>minds?



_______________________________________________________
Max More, Ph.D.
max at maxmore.com or more at extropy.org
http://www.maxmore.com
Strategic Philosopher
Chairman, Extropy Institute. http://www.extropy.org <more at extropy.org>
_______________________________________________________


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