[extropy-chat] Priorities: Longevity, food or viruses?

[Harvey Newstrom]

Mike Lorrey wrote,
> If these claims were true (and these 
> same claims were being made in the 70's) then today we should 
> be paying $80/barrel for oil and rationing one car per 
> family. Didn't happen then, won't happen now, won't happen in 
> the future.

This is not necessarily true, Mike, although it's not necessarily false
either.

I don't think prices will go up or rationing will go into effect until the
very end.  Until we start actually having shortages, I think most companies
and governments will go along ignoring the problem.  You are predicting an
escalating price and rationing as we run out, but I doubt people look that
far ahead.  You need to directly measure how much oil is left today compared
to the 1970's, instead of using an indirect measure such as price or
rationing to estimate that there is no shortage.

I think most people, even conservatives, estimate running out of oil
sometime this century.  Whether it is 20 or 60 years, we still are in the
century that runs out of oil.  With our longer life-spans today, especially
for transhumanists, it is almost definite that we will live to see the end
of oil resources.  Also, as a transhumanist, we should be especially aware
that past history is not a good predictor of the future.

-- 
Harvey Newstrom, CISSP, CISA, CISM, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC
Certified IS Security Pro, Certified IS Auditor, Certified InfoSec Manager,
NSA Certified Assessor, IBM Certified Consultant, SANS Certified GIAC
<HarveyNewstrom.com> <Newstaff.com>