[extropy-chat] Game theory of common cold

[Rafal Smigrodzki]

Anders wrote:
> Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Game theory of common cold
>
>
>
> Damien Broderick said:
>> Ah, more *cold reductive reasoning*, eh, Mr. Spock?
>
> Oh, it is just the cold equations.
>
>
> And I agree with Max M, the results are somewhat less libertarian
> than I would like. But it is better to get interesting results than
> just rearrange preconceptions.

### Hold your horses there! :-)

I think we need to examine the consequences of improving the prevention of
cold transmission over longer periods of time. It appears that a cold
epidemic ends only when the fraction of never-infected, and therefore
susceptible hosts, drops to some low level. Diminishing the transmission of
the cold virus by changing behavior of hosts, rather than vaccination, would
result in maintenance of large numbers of susceptible hosts, and over many
years the number of multiple-susceptible hosts would increase. Assume that
the source of new versions of the virus, frequently China, keeps on churning
our new viruses yearly, and there is some accumulation of the viruses in
various reservoirs (e.g. networks with slowly spreading, sporadic infection
among small, separate communities). If so, the system might become
metastable - a large population of susceptible hosts and many versions of
viruses, kept apart only by the behavioral modification. What if at some
point a critical mass is reached, and a pandemic develops even in the
presence of the behavioral modification?

Also, the idea that specific persons can be punished for infecting others
implies the ability to detect these persons, either beforehand, or after the
deed - and therefore, civil liability, the law of torts, contract law,
private exclusionary practices, and other perfectly non-coercive means can
be fruitfully employed. That they are not used, is IMO due to the marginal
disutility of the common cold (compared to what I see on the ward
sometimes), and the possibly substantial costs of preventing its
transmission (aside from vaccinations).

Rafal