[extropy-chat] Game theory of common cold

[Rafal Smigrodzki]

Robert wrote:
> Subject: RE: [extropy-chat] Game theory of common cold
>
>
>
> On Mon, 19 Jan 2004, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>
>> Assume that
>> the source of new versions of the virus, frequently China, keeps on
>> churning our new viruses yearly, and there is some accumulation of
>> the viruses in various reservoirs (e.g. networks with slowly
>> spreading, sporadic infection among small, separate communities).
>
> Rafal, are you sure about this?
>
> I was taught that most "colds" are the result of rhinoviruses which
> have over 100 different serotypes.  You become immune to an individual
> serotype after being infected but if you only have 1 cold/yr it takes
> you 100 years to develop immunity to all of them.  I ran into this
> problem when I started going to Russia -- almost every time I went
> I would end up with a cold (probably due to different serotypes
> from the U.S.) -- but after a few years I stopped catching colds
> (presumably due to accumulated immunity.  In fact its been years
> since I recall having a serious cold since I'm probably immune to
> the most common U.S. and Russian serotypes.
>
> [This characteristic makes me wonder why one just doesn't expose
> a young person to all 100 serotypes at the same time at a young
> age and be done with it.  This approach is being taken with
> vaccinations against the cancer causing types of pappiloma viruses.]
>
> If Anders model is going to be accurate and we are talking only
> about rhinoviruses I think one has to take into account the 100+
> serotypes as well as the advantages of accumulating local population
> immunity.  To do it accurately you have to know the number of
> serotypes circulating within relatively "isolated" populations
> and the rate of introduction of new serotypes in our increasingly
> interconnected world.
>
> Now influenza on the other hand is a real problem because it is
> a multi-segment genome that can recombine novel segments from
> other species (birds, esp. Ducks, and pigs usually).  When
> discussing China as a source of new viruses, it is generally
> influenza that is discussed, not rhinoviruses.  Though at the
> current time it appears that Vietnam is on the WHO watch list
> for producing new viruses.  I haven't read whether they are
> rhinoviruses, influenza or something completely new though.
>
### Yes, you are right, I was thinking about influenza, rather than the
rhinovirus infection. But, the caveats to trying to control infections by
enforced and costly behavioral changes still hold, I think.

Rafal