[extropy-chat] News from Extropy Institute
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Thu Jul 15 15:10:39 UTC 2004
Extropy Institute Newsletter
July 15, 2004
We are featuring four topics in this month's Exponent
First is the new article by R.U.
Sirius in NeoFiles on Max More. "R.U.
Sirius is co-founder of MONDO 2000, vocalist-
and-lead theoretician for MONDO. R.U. co-authored
two books with former MONDO 2000 Senior
Editor St. Jude, How to Mutate and Take Over
the World (fiction, Ballantine Books, fall, 1995)
and Cyberpunk Handbook: The Real Cyberpunk
Fake Book (humor, Random House, fall, 1995)."
Also in this Exponent is the announcement of
the new meeting hall for the Transhumanist
Cooperative Colloquium, for better
communication amongst transhumanist
Another point of interest is space architect John
Spencer and his new book, Space Tourism: Do
You Want To Go? John has been an early
advocate of transhuman ideas in Los Angeles since
way back in the early 1980s. He is also on ExI's
Executive Advisory Team (EAT).
Lastly, and with a finger on a rapid pulse, is
a reminder to register for the TransVision 2004
Conference to be held in Toronto, Canada from
August 6 - 8th.
In this issue:
* "Transhumanist Mainman" Max More in NeoFiles
* Transhumanist Cooperative Colloquium
* John Spencer - Space Architect - "Welcome Aboard" to Space!
* Register for TransVision 2004!
Article: R.U. Sirius Talks
with Max More
"Transhumanist Mainman" Max More in NeoFiles
Excerpt from the article:
NeoFiles: One thing both the precautionary and
Proactionary principles have in common is that they
are based largely on foresight and prediction. These
are ultimately subjective thought processes, even
when factually based, true? How do we develop
forecasting to the highest level of possible accuracy?
"Max More: Thank you, RU, for such a vital closing
question. If we're going to avoid costly, even deadly,
errors of judgment, and if we're to make the most of
the future, we must improve our forecasting abilities.
Human brains really stink when it comes to
forecasting; they evolved to enhance survival under
radically different, simpler circumstances. The
challenge just keeps mounting as the social-
technological environment becomes more complex.
Information technology, as we all know, is
accelerating the transmission of ideas, practices, and
responses. Various human biases and tendencies,
such as our imitative behavior, is generating faster
and faster cycles, greater instability, and higher
levels of uncertainty (at least over short periods of
And further -
"Max More: Now, I'm not sure that forecasting and
prediction are always or necessarily "ultimately
subjective thought processes." Forecasting methods
can be tested. Scott Armstrong has done amazing
work in this area. The book he produced in
collaboration with many others, The Principles of
Forecasting should be in the library of neophiles of
every stripe. As Armstrong and others have
demonstrated, some forecasting methods are
more reliable than others, or work better in particular
kinds of situations. Scott especially likes role-playing,
and has shown that it routinely beats out other
methods such as expert opinions.
"Max More: We neophiles now have a large toolkit of
forecasting and decision-making methods available to
us. We need to be aware of the options, and learn
how to choose the right tool for the job, then use
that tool carefully. I've written quite a bit about this,
most recently summarizing a major chunk of the
challenge in "Debugging Executive Decision Making."
Simply finding forecasting methods that reduce
subjectivity in judgment is easy. There are plenty of
them: Scenario planning, role playing, agent-based
modeling, idea futures markets, prospective
hindsight, Delphi Survey, peripheral sensing and
scanning, reference-class forecasting, sensemaking
software, even the emerging fields of euroeconomics
and psychomarketing, or the tongue-twisting, Nobel
Prize-winning tool of autoregressive conditional
heteroskedasticity. Far more challenging is the task
of choosing the most effective and fitting method."
Full Story (http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=oi5wn8n6.0.0.yb4rxun6.0&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.life-enhancement.com%2FNeoFiles%2Fdefault.asp%3FID%3D39)
Transhumanist Cooperative Colloquium
The TransColloquium is a meeting place for futurist
organizations in our community to come together,
calendar events, leverage our joint knowledge and
capabilities, discuss issues, and exchange ideas
concerning our shared transhumanist culture. Since
our community has grown over the years, it is time
that we have a forum where no one organization
dominates, and one which provides a fluid, shared
space for our community.
The first meeting will be held in the online meeting
room from August 22 through 24, 2004.
Each meeting will be chaired by a different
organization. That organization will set the agenda,
accepting suggestions from the Colloquium
Colloquium Website - (http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=oi5wn8n6.0.0.yb4rxun6.0&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.transcolloquium.org)
John Spencer - Space Architect - "Welcome Aboard" to Space!
Space Tourism: Do You Want To Go?
"The Space Tourism Quest is the first book published
in the United States on the space tourism theme. It
was written and designed by one of the worlds
leading authorities and pioneers in the growing field
of space tourism, space architect, John Spencer.
Founder and president of the Space Tourism Society,
"In it he premieres his vision, the "Destiny" orbital
super yacht design and master development industry
plan for expanding the space tourism movement and
creating the long-term space tourism industry.
"His plan offers opportunities for non-rocket
scientists to participate today, to make a difference,
and to have a wonderful time in the process."
- We asked John says he would like to participate as
a space architect in an Extro Conference
Designing the Future in 2005/2006. All go and
thumbs-up to a positive and resounding, "Yes I
John Spencer has been making a difference ever
since he started his first space architecture firm in
Hollywood in the late 1970s. Keeping one foot in
front of the other and practicing his space walk, he
will pioneer what he calls "the design frontier."
John sees us (transhumans) in a highly positive
light with "limitless opportunities to improve our
species in a conscious and meaningful way."
In doing so, he says that we need to find
solutions and do that again and again until it all looks
so obviously simple that everyone will say 'Anyone
could design that, and they will
never know what you went through, how much
went through before developing
his hydrogen atoms and blades of grass and eggs.'"
Buckminster Fuller, April 18, 1974
Full Story (http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=oi5wn8n6.0.0.yb4rxun6.0&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2Fexec%2Fobidos%2Ftg%2Fdetail%2F-%2F1894959086%2Fqid%3D1089829613%2Fsr%3D1-13%2Fref%3Dsr_1_13%2F002-0090227-5260007%3Fv%3Dglance%26s%3Dbooks)
Register for TransVision 2004!
The World Transhumanist Association
in cooperation with the McLuhan Program in Culture
and Technology and Transhumanist Arts & Culture
Art and Life in the Posthuman Era
August 5 to 8, 2004
University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- and see who will be there!
Full Story (http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=oi5wn8n6.0.0.yb4rxun6.0&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.transhumanism.org%2Ftv%2F2004%2Fpresenters.shtml)
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