[extropy-chat] POLITICS: terrorism and strategies

[Acy James Stapp]

Robert J. Bradbury wrote:
> On Fri, 25 Jun 2004, Acy James Stapp wrote:
> 
>> If, given certain knowledge that Hitler (or some other abominable
>> historical figure) was going to commit massive genocide, you were
>> able to go back in time and assasinate him before he could
>> cause any damage [1], would you? Assume that you personally
>> would be caught, tried, and executed. Would you pull the trigger?
> 
> If I had reasonable certainty that the alternative future
> paths would be unlikely to be worse than the current probable
> future path then the answer would of course be yes.
...
> In the cases of Hitler, Saddam, Stalin, Pol Pot, etc.
> I would certainly have intervened (if I had sufficent
> knowledge of what was taking place) long before the
> numbers got into the tens of thousands to millions
> range.  It would be unextropic to tolerate such
> a massive extinction of human life as they were
> responsible for (IMO).

I'd have to respectfully disagree. The current U.S. administration
has already caused more than ten thousand direct civilian deaths 
in Iraq [1], not to mention any future deaths from loss of 
infrastructure, depleted uranium poisoning, and other war-related
causes, and the casualties of almost one thousand American and 
coalition soldiers. Not that I'm recommending any sort of 
armed action against the current administration, but 
there *is* a non-marginal chance that civilian deaths
could reach the hundreds of thousands range in this conflict,
and if you were true to your word you would be actively
working to remove the current U.S. administration from power
by any means necessary, including violent means.

But, the chaotic nature of human sociology makes it impossible 
for any human, government, or organization to predict the 
final outcome of your proposed actions. While I certainly 
believe in taking risks for the advancement of humanity, 
the fact is that there is no way to accurately forecast 
the long-term repercussions of any large-scale social or 
military action of the type you suggest; or even of a 
small-scale action such as the removal of the American
head of state.

You almost certainly believe that you can save more lives
in the long run by not taking violent action against the
current leader of the country and being incarcerated. So
do I, and so do most other extropians. The uncertainty of
results balanced against the extreme personal risk means
that only the rarest (and most insane by current standards)
would actually take such a risk (instead of just talking
about it).

Acy (dancing around the point so I don't get a visit from 
any federal agents).

[1] http://www.iraqbodycount.net/