[extropy-chat] Re: Nano-assembler feasibility - politics

[Chris Phoenix]

In a recent technology post I wrote: One of two events will happen. 
Either we will built a mechanochemical fabricator, or we will discover a 
significant error in the theory.

Which event will happen?  The discovery of an error in the theory looks 
pretty low-probability to me; Nanosystems has been out for over a 
decade.  Obviously, you disagree.  How much are you willing to bet? 
Would you take hundred-to-one odds that there's a problem in the theory? 
  If so, I'll put up $1,000 to your $100,000.  What odds or stakes would 
you be comfortable with?

This question is not rhetorical.  If we can work out a legal, and 
legally binding, way to make bets, I'll happily take those odds at those 
stakes.  Put your money where your mouth is.  I will.  (In fact, I 
am--I'm living on savings and working full-time to create CRN, which 
represents at least $100,000 of lost earnings so far.  And I don't see 
any way CRN can repay that money.)

Now that you know how much you're willing to bet that molecular 
manufacturing theory has a gaping hole that no one has noticed, consider 
this.  The theory predicts that up to $10 billion in research dollars 
will pay off one hundredfold.  So if you're not comfortable underwriting 
high-stakes hundred-to-one odds against the theory being correct, why 
are you wasting our time talking about unicorn hunts instead of 
promoting research?

Now think about what you are actually staking.  Your job, your 
investments, your political and physical security... how much is that worth?

In practice, if you're ignoring the possibility of molecular 
manufacturing, you're probably staking at least $100,000.  What odds 
would it take to make you bet $100,000?  If someone forced you to bet 
$100,000, would your talk of "We know nothing because we don't have 
detailed blueprints" make you feel any better?  What opposing stake 
would make you happy with that risk?  What does that say about the odds?

Everyone else, feel free to chime in as well.  I won't promise to take 
all bets, but I'd like to know: how much would you stake, and at what 
odds, against molecular manufacturing?

Chris

-- 
Chris Phoenix                                  cphoenix at CRNano.org
Director of Research
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology          http://CRNano.org