[extropy-chat] Re: Nano-assembler feasibility - politics

[Chris Phoenix]

Hal Finney <hal at finney.org> wrote:
> 
> Chris writes:
>>Would you take hundred-to-one odds that there's a problem in the theory? 
>>  If so, I'll put up $1,000 to your $100,000.  What odds or stakes would 
>>you be comfortable with?
> 
> I'm confused.  You say you see a low probability of an error in the
> theory, but then you require 100 to 1 odds in your favor?  That means
> that you're only willing to bet that there's a 1% chance that the theory
> will work!  How is a 99% chance of error a low probabililty?

I didn't say I would require those odds.  (Please read more carefully.) 
  I suggested that Brett might accept them.  Then I asked what he would 
accept.  This is my starting offer.

I am challenging his assertions that we shouldn't do anything on MNT 
till we see it done.  If he wouldn't accept these odds, his position on 
MNT is probably irrational.  Asking him to put his money where his mouth 
is is a way of quantifying things.  He has asked for quantification...

> Or is this a typo, did you mean to let the other guy put up $1,000 and
> you will pay $100,000 if the theory doesn't work?

As I said, I've already given up $100,000, and will give up a lot more 
before I'm done.  Once Brett and I are done bargaining, I'll tell you 
(if anyone is interested) just what odds and stakes I'd be willing to bet.

> For reference, the FX idea futures game predicts around 2023-2025 for
> the date of awarding the Feynman Grand Prize, which requires the
> construction of a couple of small nanotech-type devices,
> http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=FyGP .

Those "couple of small nanotech-type devices" were carefully chosen to 
be significant milestones toward a molecular manufacturing system.

Chris

-- 
Chris Phoenix                                  cphoenix at CRNano.org
Director of Research
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology          http://CRNano.org