[extropy-chat] monty hall paradox again

[Reason]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org]On Behalf Of Spike
> Sent: Tuesday, May 18, 2004 11:25 PM
> To: 'ExI chat list'
> Subject: [extropy-chat] monty hall paradox again
>
> Nowthen, since we have concluded that for each dollar
> in the envelope you choose, the other envelope contains
> an expected buck twenty five, you would *always* trade,
> regardless.  For that reason, there really is no reason
> to bother opening and looking in the envelope you chose first.  
> Regardless of the amount therein, you will immediately trade 
> it away for the other one since you expect it to contain more.
> So why not skip the step of choosing the first envelope
> and subsequently trading it (opened or unopened) for the second?  
> Why not just decide which one you would choose, then take 
> the other one instead?  Or if you choose one, then trade
> it, you might go thru the same line of reasoning that
> you did before and conclude that regardless of the amount
> in the envelope you now hold, the other one contains 25%
> more, and since you still haven't opened either envelope,
> you can still trade back.  Then of course the same line
> of reasoning *still* applies, so you trade again.  And
> again.  And so on to infinity and beyond.

Not quite. There is an opportunity cost to time spent trading envelopes.

Reason
Founder, Longevity Meme