[extropy-chat] monty hall paradox again: reds and green gorfs

[Spike]

You wish to buy a gorf but you are unsure of
what kind to buy.  You ask a number of people and find
that opinion is divided.  Most say the red gorfs
and green gorfs are indistinguishable, that they
taste exactly the same.  A small but vocal minority
says that red gorfs are better than green gorfs,
and will even pay much more for them in times of
red gorf scarcity.  No one is actually arguing
that the green gorfs are superior, only that they
are *equal* to the reds in every way.

Which do you buy?  If their prices are equal would
you bet that the minority *might* be right?  Or that
there is a small chance they are right?  If even a
small chance exists, you would choose the red gorf, right?
Does this constitute a logical fallacy?

I see a compelling reason to not trade envelopes
in the previous 2 envelope MH paradox, since the mathematical
expectation is equal, but a small vocal minority insists 
it is good to switch envelopes.  Should that effect my 
decision to trade or stick?  Since it costs me no more
to get a red gorf, would I not choose a red?  And since
it costs me nothing to trade envelopes, would I not
assign a small probability that my reasoning is
wrong and trade?  Is there a name for this logical
fallacy?

spike