[extropy-chat] monty hall paradox again

[Alan Eliasen]

> On Wed, 2004-05-19 at 00:47 -0600, Alan Eliasen wrote:
>>   Projected earnings for either case is 3/2n, and no option (always staying,
>>switching, whatever) improves that.

Alejandro Dubrovsky wrote:
> So are you saying that once you opened the first envelope and it had
> $10, you wouldn't switch?

   What I'm saying is that if you don't have any idea of the potential amounts
in the envelopes (as cited in the problem description,) then neither option
(switching or staying) is mathematically preferable.  I'd do just as well
flipping a coin, or always staying, or always switching, or staying 22.8% of
the time, or whatever.

   I'm not sure if you're getting at something different with the $10
question.  If this is treated as a mathematical problem, my answer is as
above.  If you're turning it into a psychological problem, in which one tries
to guess the probable amount of a donation, you're on your own.  I can only
predict the simple things, not the firing of an unknown benefactor's billion
neurons.  ;)

-- 
  Alan Eliasen                 | "You cannot reason a person out of a
  eliasen at mindspring.com       |  position he did not reason himself
  http://futureboy.homeip.net/ |  into in the first place."
                               |     --Jonathan Swift