[extropy-chat] monty hall paradox again: reds and green gorfs

[Brian Lee]

If red and green gorfs are indistuingishable, how can you tell if one has a 
red or a green gorf? You could always buy either and then sell them off to 
red gorfs when a shortage is perceived (however that happens).

BAL

>From: "Extropian Agroforestry Ventures Inc." <megao at sasktel.net>
>To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
>Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] monty hall paradox again: reds and green gorfs
>Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 09:58:27 -0500
>
>The Forrest Gump dilemma?
>
>Spike wrote:
>
> > You wish to buy a gorf but you are unsure of
> > what kind to buy.  You ask a number of people and find
> > that opinion is divided.  Most say the red gorfs
> > and green gorfs are indistinguishable, that they
> > taste exactly the same.  A small but vocal minority
> > says that red gorfs are better than green gorfs,
> > and will even pay much more for them in times of
> > red gorf scarcity.  No one is actually arguing
> > that the green gorfs are superior, only that they
> > are *equal* to the reds in every way.
> >
> > Which do you buy?  If their prices are equal would
> > you bet that the minority *might* be right?  Or that
> > there is a small chance they are right?  If even a
> > small chance exists, you would choose the red gorf, right?
> > Does this constitute a logical fallacy?
> >
> > I see a compelling reason to not trade envelopes
> > in the previous 2 envelope MH paradox, since the mathematical
> > expectation is equal, but a small vocal minority insists
> > it is good to switch envelopes.  Should that effect my
> > decision to trade or stick?  Since it costs me no more
> > to get a red gorf, would I not choose a red?  And since
> > it costs me nothing to trade envelopes, would I not
> > assign a small probability that my reasoning is
> > wrong and trade?  Is there a name for this logical
> > fallacy?
> >
> > spike
> >
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