[extropy-chat] Re: monty hall paradox again: reds and green gorfs

[Eliezer S. Yudkowsky]

Spike wrote:
> 
> A possibly irrelevant factor: a certain jupiter brain
> who shall remain nameless (but whose initials are 
> Eliezer Yudkowsky) sat in my living room Monday and 
> expounded an argument for sticking which I think may 
> have been erroneous.  If the Bayesian Master could 
> miss it, then I could waaaaay miss it, in which case 
> the simple intuitive swap really might be the right way 
> to maximize your zorgs.  If you didn't swap and later
> discovered the error in your reasoning, you would
> forever curse your own Vulcan brain for not swapping!
> Your human brain was telling you: "Spike!  Swap, fer
> cryin out loud!  You are betting 5 against 10 in an
> even-chances bet!  Whats wrong with you?"  etc. 
> Of course I might be just waxing superstitious.

Ah, we thus find the obviously erroneous assumption at the heart of the 
paradox:  You suppose that I have made a mistake.

I didn't say to stick, Spike.  I said to keep the envelope if the amount 
of money in the envelope was surprisingly high, and otherwise swap.  As 
for this business of zorgs, I would still be surprised to find 10^100 
zorgs in the envelope, so there must be a limit somewhere.

-- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence