[extropy-chat] Re: monty hall paradox again: reds and green gorfs

[David]

>spike said
>
>Unfortunately this example is causing people to get
>tripped by the details of the problem, as happened
>with the red and green gorf paradox.  Do suggest a
>fix if you know one in both cases.  I want to express
>the notion that swapping is the intuitively correct
>path, yet leads to paradox: swapping is still the
>best strategy even after swapping.  We know this
>cannot be right, so the first envelope you choose
>must (somehow) have a higher chance of being the
>larger amount.  How, oh evolution, how can this be so?
>
>spike
>
>  
>
The expected value of each envelope before opening one is 50% of the total.
After opening one you still don´t know what a zorg is worth and you have no
further information, so the expected value of your envelope is still 50% of
the total.  This makes the other envelope worth either 2/3 or 4/3 of 
your envelope.
An even money bet.
If you did this a few thousand times, regardless of whether you swap or
not you will end up averaging 15 zorgs per go.


ps. the rare purple gorf is far and away the tastiest.