[extropy-chat] Re: monty hall paradox again: reds and green gorfs

[Spike]

> Eliezer Yudkowsky
>
> >  ...The probability that
> > the other envelope is larger must go to 1/3, it doesn't
> > matter how it gets there."
> 
> Your mathematician friend is flat wrong, and needs to study Bayesian 
> probability theory. --  Eliezer S. Yudkowsky 

OK cool, I was hoping someone would say that.  So where
is the error?  Are you saying that Bayesian reasoning
predicts that there *is* a profit in swapping?  Even
if you have no idea how much a zorg is?  How do you
set up the Bayesian priors?  How do you set up a
sim to prove it?

spike