[extropy-chat] Re: monty hall paradox again: reds and green gorfs

[Spike]

Alejandro, I have been trying to post you offlist,
thrice so far, but of all oddball things the message
won't send.  I can send to any other place, but your
messages sit in my outbox like an electronic version of
indigestion, and eventually cause a microsloth outbox 
send error, which I suppose is analogous to an electronic
barf.

Computer jockeys, what is the deal with that?

spike  

> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org 
> [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of 
> Alejandro Dubrovsky
> Sent: Sunday, May 23, 2004 1:33 AM
> To: ExI chat list
> Subject: RE: [extropy-chat] Re: monty hall paradox again: 
> reds and green gorfs
> 
> 
> On Sat, 2004-05-22 at 19:48 -0700, Spike wrote:
> 
> > > Eliezer Yudkowsky
> > >
> > > >  ...The probability that
> > > > the other envelope is larger must go to 1/3, it doesn't
> > > > matter how it gets there."
> > > 
> > > Your mathematician friend is flat wrong, and needs to 
> study Bayesian 
> > > probability theory. --  Eliezer S. Yudkowsky 
> > 
> > OK cool, I was hoping someone would say that.  So where
> > is the error?  Are you saying that Bayesian reasoning
> > predicts that there *is* a profit in swapping?  Even
> > if you have no idea how much a zorg is?  How do you
> > set up the Bayesian priors?  How do you set up a
> > sim to prove it?
> > 
> 
> Like Brett said, the results change depending on how the problem is
> stated.  If you run a simulation and you get an agent to stick and one
> to switch on two envelopes one containing twice the amount of 
> the other,
> then they both end up with the same amount.  But if you set it up so
> that the sticker gets 10 and the switcher gets 5 or 20 with equal
> probability then switcher wins.  Of course, this equal probability is
> set a posteriori to getting the 10, and it clashes with it 
> having a 1/3
> - 2/3 probability that comes up in the first simulation.  How 
> this makes
> any sense is beyond me, and will ruin me for another week at least.
> 
> (btw, spike, could you tell me if you got any of the two emails that i
> sent to you directly?  your isp doesn't seem to like mine)
> 
> alejandro
> 
> 
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