[extropy-chat] SPACE: The next race: America's space Prize

[Mike Lorrey]

--- Adrian Tymes <wingcat at pacbell.net> wrote:
> 
> Let me rephrase, then:
> 
> With the current deadline, there is a very high risk
> that no one will even seriously try to claim the
> prize by 2010 (if anyone does, it will be
> semi-obvious fraudsters like the da Vinci team was
> on the first X Prize: putting out press releases and
> promises but little if any actual flights and
> hardware).  The resulting disappointment will likely
> leave the task undone through 2015, assuming no other
> funding effort comes to the rescue.

I don't agree. I know that Rutan has been working on his Tier Two
program for some time, and other projects under way for a while, like
Kistler, Kelly, XCOR, Pioneer, et al demonstrate that Bigelow's market
is clearly a next step that is possible. The ballistic sub-orbital
market is certainly another one, but isn't one that will contribute any
new knowledge base to anyone pursuing Bigelow's prize that doesn't
already exist in NASA archives or research facilities.

It cost about $22 million for Rutan/Allen to do what they did for a $10
million prize. Roton spent over $30 million to do what Bigelow is
proposing and went tits up, with the conclusion that it would cost at
least $70 million do achieve it, but that it was possible. I predict
whoever does it will spend about $100-120 million developing building
and launching the first vehicle to win Bigelow's prize, and that it
will be won by a company that has been working on that market already
for several years. Could be Rutan, could be someone else. I'll put 2:1
odds that it's Rutan.

> 
> On the other hand, sponsor a midway goal at 2010 and
> then the full thing at 2015, and the odds are
> significantly increased that service can start around
> 2015 - which makes it worthwhile even if the midway
> goal by itself is of marginal, maybe even zero, direct
> value to Bigelow.
> 
> So, no, it doesn't matter that he doesn't want to go
> to Tokyo. 

The flight regieme of a ballistic shuttle is so inconsequentially
indifferent from that of what Bigelow needs, that it is in Bigelow's
interest to demand the full boat. One thing that annoyed me about the
X-Prize were all the pissant projects from backyard BS artists acting
like real competitors with nothing to back up their bs.

=====
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=Sadomikeyism


		
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