[extropy-chat] SPACE: The next race: America's space Prize

[Kevin Freels]

I think the point is to have the capability to deliver people to the ISS
during the gap period between the shuttle fleet, which is expected to be
retired in 2010, and whatever they come up with next. 2015 will put them in
too much competition with NASA. If someone can pull this off by 2010, they
will have a good chance at a virtual monopoly for a few years.


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Adrian Tymes" <wingcat at pacbell.net>
To: "ExI chat list" <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Sent: Tuesday, November 09, 2004 3:28 PM
Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] SPACE: The next race: America's space Prize


> --- Mike Lorrey <mlorrey at yahoo.com> wrote:
> > --- Adrian Tymes <wingcat at pacbell.net> wrote:
> > > Yeah, but look at the deadline.  A number of
> > people
> > > (myself included) have been advocating that the
> > 2010
> > > goal should be something short of orbit - say, a
> > > suborbital but significant distance point-to-point
> > > hop, like L.A. to Tokyo, or at least Mojave to
> > Maine.
> > > Else one runs a severe risk that no one will show
> > up
> > > for the challenge in time.  (Especially with the
> > > added,
> > > though relatively minor, complication of docking
> > > capability.)
> >
> > An LA to Tokyo hop is of such significance (you need
> > to reach at least
> > mach 16 to do it ballistically) that if you can
> > reach that its not much
> > tougher to go into orbit. Bigelow's market isn't in
> > Tokyo, its market
> > is in orbit. Bigelow doesn't, therefore, have an
> > interest in getting to
> > Tokyo, unless you can prove it will get rich
> > customers to his launch
> > site quicker to get them into orbit for his space
> > hotel.
>
> Let me rephrase, then:
>
> With the current deadline, there is a very high risk
> that no one will even seriously try to claim the
> prize by 2010 (if anyone does, it will be
> semi-obvious fraudsters like the da Vinci team was
> on the first X Prize: putting out press releases and
> promises but little if any actual flights and
> hardware).  The resulting disappointment will likely
> leave the task undone through 2015, assuming no other
> funding effort comes to the rescue.
>
> On the other hand, sponsor a midway goal at 2010 and
> then the full thing at 2015, and the odds are
> significantly increased that service can start around
> 2015 - which makes it worthwhile even if the midway
> goal by itself is of marginal, maybe even zero, direct
> value to Bigelow.
>
> So, no, it doesn't matter that he doesn't want to go
> to Tokyo.  Just pick any two reasonably accessible
> points a good distance apart - or even let the
> contestants pick their own launch and landing sites,
> so long as they are at least X kilometers apart.  (To
> pick an extreme example, most contestants would view
> Iraq to Singapore as unfeasable even if they could do
> the much longer L.A. to Tokyo trip.  But who knows,
> there might be a group with connections that could
> find usable launch and landing sites in those two
> areas.  Very unlikely, especially since this contest
> is for American companies only, but it doesn't cost
> anything to allow it.)
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