[extropy-chat] POLITICS: 537 Economists Criticize Bush and Kerry

Eliezer Yudkowsky sentience at pobox.com
Fri Oct 15 09:39:33 UTC 2004


Hal Finney wrote:
> Eliezer writes:
> 
>>Hal Finney wrote:
>>
>>>See <http://www.openlettertothepresident.org/> and
>>><http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_comment/release_bc04_economists.html>.
>>
>>On what matter of fact do these scientists disagree?  I 
>>have reviewed both letters and they seem to target different follies by 
>>both candidates; there is no incompatibility between these disasters.
> 
> How about this: from the first letter, "The data make clear that your
> policy of slashing taxes - primarily for those at the upper reaches
> of the income distribution - has not worked....  What is called for,
> we believe, is a dramatic reorientation of fiscal policy, including
> substantial reversals of your tax policy."

Right.  Concentration of wealth is bad.

> And from the second letter, "John Kerry has proposed tax increases that
> threaten to sap the economy's vitality and reduce long-term growth.
> Specifically, Kerry proposes to 'restore the top two [income]
> tax rates to their levels under President Clinton'....  In fact, we
> believe Kerry's proposals would, over time, inhibit capital formation,
> depress productivity growth, and make the United States less competitive
> internationally."

Right.  Higher taxes are bad.

> The first group recommends "substantial reversals" of Bush's tax policy.
> But the second specifically criticizes Kerry's proposal to roll back
> the tax situation to what it was before Bush took office.  That looks
> pretty contradictory to me.

I admit that you have to look at this pretty closely, knowing in advance 
what economists can be expected to agree upon, to see how both sets of 
signatories managed to phrase their criticism without saying anything that 
would depart from the standard model.

> The conclusions of the two letters are not exactly opposite but pretty
> discouraging when read in concert:
> 
> "Given the tenuous state of the American economy, we believe that the
> time for an honest assessment of the problem and for genuine corrective
> action is now. Ignoring the fiscal crisis that has taken hold during
> your presidency may seem politically appealing in the short run, but we
> fear it could ultimately prove disastrous. From a policy standpoint, the
> clear message is that more of the same won't work. The warning signs
> are already visible, and it is incumbent upon all of us to pay attention."
> 
> "All in all, John Kerry favors economic policies that, if implemented,
> would lead to bigger and more intrusive government and a lower standard
> of living for the American people."

Why would this be contradictory?  Is there some version of the Law of the 
Excluded Middle which states that the truth must be either Bush or Kerry? 
What makes you think that a happy ending to this mess is even possible?

> So Bush's policies will lead to disaster, and Kerry's will lower the
> American standard of living.  Is it possible that each candidate has
> managed to craft an economic program that will be actively harmful?

Of *course*!  What else do you think is happening?  Do you think that if 
two Republicrat candidates make campaign promises, one set of campaign 
promises must not be actively harmful?  You should be surprised that 
there's even a noticeable difference between the two sets of promises, and 
probably most of the difference is pure campaign bull.

> Do you think most of the professional economists who signed these letters
> would agree with the statements in the other one?

I think they would be hard-pressed to directly contradict them in writing, 
especially writing they expected their peers to read.

> If so, maybe someone did sign them both!

Unlikely; how many economists are likely to be both partisan Republicans 
and partisan Democrats?

> Well, I just spent a few minutes analyzing them
> and there don't seem to be any common signatories.  Frankly I would be
> pretty surprised if that happened.

So would I.  But I also don't see any hundreds of economists signing a 
refutation of either set of accusations.

-- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence



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