[extropy-chat] how partisanship skews perception

[Damien Broderick]

At 07:41 PM 10/23/2004 -0700, Mike Lorrey wrote:

>If extropians are
>such big supporters of futures markets being the best predictors of
>facts and future events, and futures markets behave according to price
>signals created by mass consensus, and mass consensus is that Iraq was
>involved in al Qaeda, isn't that more true than the flawed intelligence
>agencies conclusions that totally missed the events leading up to 911?

Aside from the fact that this is a grotesque misapplication of the Delphi 
principle (perhaps intended as a joke at the expense of democrats), it 
completely misses the point that what was investigated by the study I cited 
was (1) the *absence* of mass consensus in the currently polarized 
atmosphere, and (2) the striking degree in which the two major subsets of 
the population yielded contrary consensus, not just in their own opinions 
but in their (meta)opinion of what Bush thought to be the case and why.

Damien Broderick