[extropy-chat] Development of returns on capital investments as we approach the Singularity

[Hal Finney]

Jan Hendrik Schmidt writes:
> Here are two questions I've been wondering about for some time:
>
> 1. What are the driving forces that determine the average returns on
> invested capital in our world? Does anyone know the fundamental economic
> reasons why these returns have so far been around  5-15%?
>
> 2. Applying such an economic understanding to Singularity theory (as
> thought out by Eliezer Yudkowsky, Vernor Vinge, and others), how should
> we expect capital investment returns to develop as we approach the
> Singularity? Will they go to zero or to infinity, or stay as they are
> now? Does anyone know of a good economic treatment of this issue?

You might be interested in looking at Robin Hanson's papers on this
subject, available at http://hanson.gmu.edu/econofsf.html.  In particular,
his papers "Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence", "If Uploads Come
First: The Crack of a Future Dawn", "Is a singularity just around the
corner? What it takes to get explosive economic growth", and "Long-Term
Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes" all discuss issues of growth
in the face of extreme technology change.

However, Robin's papers make sophisticated use of economic models, so
you will need a background in macroeconomics in order to understand them.

Another source you might enjoy is David D. Friedman's online book in
progress, Future Imperfect,
http://patrifriedman.com/prose-others/fi/commented/Future_Imperfect.html.
It is largely about the impact of computer technologies from a cypherpunk
perspective, but the last few chapters discuss Extropian concepts like
biotech, life extension, cryonics, nanotech, and AI.  Chapter 18 in
particular talks about the impact of human level AI.  However I have only
skimmed parts of the book and I don't think it goes into much detail on
any one topic.

Hal