[extropy-chat] morons in office

[Patrick Wilken]

On 27 Oct 2004, at 19:58, Damien Broderick wrote:
> I was surprised by the recent NYT report on the comparative IQs of 
> Bush and Kerry (and startled that the NYT used as its source the 
> racist site Vdare.com, but that's another story). Using SATs and the 
> like, it was decided that Bush's IQ is c. 125 (SAT 1206), and Kerry's 
> c. 120. Gore's allegedly is around 135.

But without proper estimates of error these numbers are meaningless. A 
properly administered IQ test has a SD of 10 or 15 depending on the 
test, but you have to take into account that there is additional noise 
in these estimates when attempting to convert from SAT scores to 
estimated IQ. I would guess that there is going to a SD of at least 25 
IQ points in these estimates (actually given the ability to train for 
SATs I am sure the actual noise estimates are considerably higher). 
That would mean that we have an 95% estimate of Bush or Kerry's IQ 
somewhere in the range of 70-75 and 170-175! So all we can conclude 
from this is that either or both candidates IQ falls somewhere in the 
v. superior - v. impaired range.

I am pretty sure that simply listening to the candidates speak, even in 
an artificial situation like the public debates where the candidates 
have been extensively rehearsed, will give a much better estimate of 
their actual IQs. If you take into account what they have achieved with 
their lives and how this was done you will get an even better 
guesstimate of their actual smarts.

best, patrick