[extropy-chat] IRAQ: Weapons pipeline to Syria

BillK pharos at gmail.com
Sat Oct 30 10:21:22 UTC 2004


On Fri, 29 Oct 2004 22:16:16 -0700 (PDT), Stephen Van_Sickle wrote:
> 
> I am not a statistician, so I would be very interested
> in the opinions of anyone on this list with a more
> extensive background than I have.  In particular, if I
> am reading it correctly, they are extrapolating the
> 100,000 figure from 21 violent deaths.  This does not
> fill me with a great deal of confidence, but I'm
> willing to be set straight.
> 

See the complete pdf report file at:
<http://image.thelancet.com/extras/04art10342web.pdf>
(Registration not required)
 
They tried to interview 30 clusters of 30 households (assuming an
average of 7 people in each household) (n-6300), but they encountered
various implementation problems. (Hardly surprising!) But it was still
quite a large survey.

They do make the point that the increases in violent deaths are not
from US soldiers, but mainly from US bombing. If Iraqi fighters are
living and fighting from their homes then unless they move their
families away, then their families will get bombed along with the
fighters. This appears to be what has happened.

BillK



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