[extropy-chat] more moore

[Max M]

Eugen Leitl wrote:

>On Wed, Sep 01, 2004 at 09:53:50AM +0200, Max M wrote:
>  
>
>>I cannot easily see a major technology that demands much faster 
>>processors. But hopefully it will something like a domestic robot. Im 
>>    
>>
>Current machines are too slow for ...
>
I completely agree that there will always be a need for more 
performance, and that need will never stop.

What I am worrying about is whether it will be affordable.

Each new CPU generation fab doubles the cost. This has been covered by a 
higher usefulness of faster CPU's. More tasks could be solved for more 
people. There need to be a *big* market to cover the cost of a fab.

But if the CPU production cost rises and the demand lowers, due to lack 
of new technology that can use the power for anything a mass market 
cares about. Then fewer new fabs will be built, and the development will 
take another direction.

It's absolutely a possibility.

What can offset it, is that it will be easier to implement new software 
on more powerful processors. Using higher level languages and better 
tools. But the new technologies are not as obvious as before, as all the 
low hanging fruits have been picked already. Bussines automation, 
multimedia, games etc.


regards Max M