[extropy-chat] The Long Now: Bets and Predictions Over Time

[Brent Neal]

 (9/23/04 18:36) Mike Lorrey <mlorrey at yahoo.com> wrote:

>The bias is that more young people use cellphones. Problem is that
>young people don't vote as frequently either. A good pollster will have
>studies done to determine how many people are in such situations and
>adjust projections accordingly.


You're using two different definitions of 'young.'  18-25 year olds don't vote frequently. However, the 'young' people who are undersampled are the 25-35 year olds who tend to be much more politically active. If the pollsters are adjusting their models along your lines, the prediction would be even -more- skewed than it would be otherwise.

And I wouldn't count the 18-25 yr olds out in this election. One thing that we've seen this cycle is that there is an abnormally high interest in the elections, due to the asininity of the Bush administration.  The young folks who have no desire to be drafted will turn out. The Intervarsity Campus Crusader Hitler Youth  types will turn out to "cast a vote for Jesus" (that was on a College Republicans' flyer, btw.)  The progressive kids who spent their college summer pounding turf for Howard Dean will turn out.  We'll see which camp is largest, but I really don't think that the youngest set is going to play hooky this time around.

B
-- 
Brent Neal
Geek of all Trades
http://brentn.freeshell.org

"Specialization is for insects" -- Robert A. Heinlein