[extropy-chat] Debate on Peak Oil

Hal Finney hal at finney.org
Mon Apr 25 05:19:04 UTC 2005

Samantha writes:

> I find the case for Peak Oil and quite soon compelling.  But whether we  
> are nearing the Peak rapidly or not is in a way irrelevant.   If most  
> of the major players believe we are nearing Peak Oil and act  
> accordingly then most of the Peak Oil scenarios will quickly follow.   
> My take is that a lot of the world's current events are much easier to  
> explain if it is assumed most of the players believe Peak Oil is fast  
> upon us.

I see several things that don't make sense though.  Why would oil
producing companies and countries be wasting such a valuable asset?
If they really think that oil will be worth $100-200/bbl or even more in
a few years, why sell it for $25 last year or $50 this year?  The logical
thing would be to hold onto the oil, keep it in the ground and profit
from the tremendous price appreciation predicted by Peak Oil believers.

And why don't the futures markets reflect this phenomenon?  You can buy
or sell oil right now for December 2010 delivery for less than $50/bbl.
If close study of the situation provides strong evidence that the oil
will be worth many times that, speculators stand to make enormous profits
on the price rise.  Yet no one is bidding the price up, and from what I
have read even Peak Oil believers generally are not putting their money
where their mouths are.


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