[extropy-chat] Debate on Peak Oil

[Mike Lorrey]

--- Samantha Atkins <sjatkins at mac.com> wrote:
> 
> On Apr 24, 2005, at 9:37 PM, Mike Lorrey wrote:
> 
> > Peak Oil exists for certain nations and certain oil companies,
> based on
> > who has the rights to certain oil fields and which fields are being
> > allowed to be developed by governments. The world is nowhere near
> any
> > sort of impending oil shortage. We have a minimum of 100 years of
> oil
> > available at todays market prices.
> 
> Produce your evidence or withdraw this claim.

It was clearly stated previously the years that the exploitable
reserves of different oil companies would peak out at. This isn't
something that is open to dispute. Peak Oil just doesn't count reserves
that are to date unexploited for other than economic reasons. The
Spratlys reserves were unexploited for reasons of international tension
between four nations. ANWR is unexploited purely for environmental
reason. California and Florida reserves (which are far larger than you
state) are closed of purely for the sake of tourists and waterfront
property owners not seeing oil derricks (much as Kerry and Kennedy got
the wind power project off Cape Cod cancelled).

> 
> >
> > The Canadian oil tar sands contain more oil (over 3,000 billion
> > barrels), as do Venezuelan tar sands, that the idea that we are
> running
> > out of oil is simply ludicrous.
> 
> Except for the unfortunate fact that we have no means to economically
> (today's prices) and environmentally sanely extract and refine such 
> oil.

Not true. Prior technology could safely and not so cleanly extract the
oil at $60.00/bbl. New technology does it cleanly with steam treatment
and water remediation at under $30/bbl. I happen to know of a company
that just built the pilot plant in Alberta.

> 
> > In the
> > shorter term, China, the Phillipines, Vietnam, and Indonesia are
> > sitting on 19 billion barrels under the Spratlys, while the US has
> an
> > equivalent amount sitting under ANWR, plus additional reserves
> > elsewhere. The oil and gas fields of Wyoming, I am hearing are
> seeing a
> > boom-time.
> 
> US oil production peaked in the 70s (as predicted by Hubbert).  Do
> you think we are dependent on Mideast oil just to amuse ourselves
> with the attendant complications and costs when we actually have
> everything we need right here?

Yes. Political forces want high oil prices for several reasons. One is
to get America off of its consumption economy, to depopulate the rural
area further and congregate in cities so as to be easier to control,
another is to trigger a recession in preparation for a Chinese dollar
bomb attack prior to their retaking Taiwan (and assisted by JP Morgan).
Luddite goals which extropians should not let themselves get sucked
into. 

The resulting economic depression will force the US government to hand
over title to federal and state parks and forests to the UN's World
Biosphere Reserve program, so as to fully collateralize the World
Bank/IMF. The point of this is to enable the WB/IMF to fully monetize
the UN budget at low government bond rates independently of member
nations, turning the UN into a truly federal world government,
independently sovereign from its member nations, much as the US states
transitioned during the Civil War and Reconstruction period. Combined
with their measures to turn the high seas into UN territory, so they
can raise taxes from international commerce, and world government will
be inevitable if we let it happen.

> ANWR is not that impressive to the actual oil 
> companies. To put this in perspective, the world sucks down 77 mbd, 
> call it 100 mbd in round numbers (we expect to reach this level
> easily 
> with the next 5 - 10 years).  The 19 billion barrels satisfies world 
> demand for less than a year.  Not very impressive.  Also we are lucky
> to get as much as 70% of the oil out of the ground.

This is the typical lying with numbers that occurs. You are acting as
if ANWR would be the only oil supplier in the world. Gimme a break. If
ANWR only pumped 1 million bbl/day, it would quickly increase global
oil stocks to the point that prices would drop back to the mid $20's
range. At 1 million bbl/day, that would make ANWR last for at least 50
years.

Nor will we reach 100 mbbl/day any time soon. It will take till 2020
before China has even a fraction of the US number of autos. By then
they will be pumping the Spratlys fields for all the are worth.


Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com

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