[extropy-chat] Betting on Global Warming

[Brett Paatsch]

The Avantguardian wrote:

> --- Robert Lindauer <robgobblin at aol.com> wrote:
> 
>> Federal offense under the wire laws:
>> 
>> "Whoever being engaged in the business of betting or
>> wagering knowingly 
>> uses a wire communication facility for the
>> transmission in interstate 
>> or foreign commerce of bets or wagers or information
>> assisting in the 
>> placing of bets or wagers on any sporting event or
>> contest, or for the 
>> transmission of a wire communication which entitles
>> the recipient to 
>> receive money or credit as a result of bets or
>> wagers, or for 
>> information assisting in the placing of bets or
>> wagers, shall be fined 
>> under this title or imprisoned not more than two
>> years, or both."
>> 
>> With an actual conviction in the case of Jay Cohen.
>> 
>> For information, see:
>> 
>> http://www.usdoj.gov/criminal/cybercrime/cohen.htm
> 
> I am not an attorney, but I see a lot wiggle room in
> the wording of that law. For one thing it seems to
> apply specifically to betting on sporting events over
> the wire. Yet clearly there are web-based sport
> bookies out there so it may be a problematic law to
> enforce. But really I don't think a futures type
> market would be illegal under the law as it is stated.
> A strict interpretation would mean that you could bet
> on anything EXCEPT a sporting event or contest. A
> loose interpretation would make the likes of E*Trade
> illegal. But clearly the government isn't going after
> online brokerages so it may actually be just a
> prohibition against betting on sporting events.  

You know Stu the wiggle room factor in such laws
has occurred to me and it seems it might be possible
to create just the right sort of token bet that would
blast a blitzcreig sized marketing hole on which a 
number of others bets might follow after the publicity.

For instance what if I were to offer to bet you ten
US dollars that the IQ of George W Bush, Donald
Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney WAS in fact higher than
the IQ of their equivalent weight of genuine organically
grown vegetables. 

Frankly I wouldn't much care about losing the 10 bucks
if you offered to bet the contrary and it was proven alas
you were right and I was wrong.  

This is a poor example put together in haste, but the 
point I am trying to make is that when the time is right
one can perhaps design a bet that will blaze open a
new market because of the people who don't want it
to get publicity, yet it would be easy to make it get
publicity by increasing the stakes of the bet on both
sides. 

If 10 billion dollars is ridding on each side of the bet
it would be damned hard not to report about it. 

Maybe ;-)

I'm being a little silly now I admit. But politics can
be used to change silly laws in such ways.

Brett Paatsch