[extropy-chat] a futurist prediction

[Brett Paatsch]

No thanks, Al. The bet you propose isn't well formed enough to interest me.

There is a non zero probability that George W Bush might die, resign or 
be impeached before 20 January 2009. And any of those outcomes 
*might* be to the net good. That's net American or United States'ian 
good (leaving the rest of the world out of it except in so far as the US is
going to have to continue to be part of the world after its 43rd President
is long gone). I'm still mulling that over.  His absence prior to 20 January
2009 could constitute a real opportunity for improvement but could also 
introduce new areas of risk. 

My current reading of George W Bush is that he genuinely wants to finish
what he started with respect to Iraq. He wants to keep his promises to 
those Iraqis that voted in the election. He also wants to avoid impeachment.
And the shame and historical approbium of having taken decisions that did
more harm than good.  I think he really *wants* to do some good on his 
watch. 

Brett Paatsch


----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Al Brooks 
  To: ExI chat list 
  Sent: Tuesday, August 23, 2005 9:35 AM
  Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] a futurist prediction


  good gravy! Did mean in fact to write January 20th 2009, the date the FBNF informed me of-- a simple clerical error. But Bret, now that you've taken the bait, would you care to wager an unmarked futurist-extropian-transhumanist three dollar bill that the administration sworn in on January 20th Two Thousand Nine inherits the Iraq occupation from its predecessor the Bush administration? All wagers are tax deductible.

  Brett Paatsch <bpaatsch at bigpond.net.au> wrote: 
    I'd be inclined to bet to the contrary Al. I could be wrong but here's my
    reasoning.

    The January inauguration will have to follow the election which would 
    take place on 2 November 2008. 4 years after 2 November 2004. 

    Brett Paatsch
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